Death of North Korea’s “Dear Leader” tonight has raised fears in financial markets as well as uncertainty in regional and global capitals. It is not that North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il was a lid on more radical forces in his country. Rather, it has been the methodology of the North Korean ruling elite to resort to brinksmanship when faced with uncertainty and troubles at home. North Korea’s leadership plays its own type of gruff and bluff – most recently when facing food shortages and political isolation. Kin Jong-Il's death is seen much more in terms of risk rather than opportunity. Self-Imposed Seclusion More than Internationally Forced Isolation: The North Korean delegation to the United Nations sat immediately behind ours, Bosnia & Herzegovina. They avoided interaction and I cannot recall a grin even when diplomacy might call for a contrived smile. One might attribute this to the isolation of North Korea by most of the rest of the global community. However, that isolation was self-imposed. And, comparing North Korea to Cuba’s highly interactive and outgoing diplomacy at the UN with both facing US sanctions, reveals perhaps something more deep rooted in each rather than the somewhat similar situation and adversary faced by both. North Korea is again facing food shortages, malnutrition and perhaps famine. UNSG Ban Ki-moon has called for a global humanitarian response to alleviate the suffering but also perhaps to deter North Korea from launching a verbal or real missile at its neighbors. Some may liken North Korea’s behavior as that of a pre-teen throwing a temper tantrum to get attention. However, I think there is something more calculated – a form of extortion where the misery of its own people and of course nuclear weapons that are played out as cards in this game of bluff. Recent Regressive Tendency: The recent trend unfortunately has been regressive in terms of North Korea’s relationship with its neighbors and willingness to suppress its nuclear military program. Only a year earlier North Korea appears to have purposefully sunk a South Korean warship. I was convinced that then that the situation would be even more dynamic and dramatic this year – See Film Report: - Korea Lunging to Conflict” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/korea-lunging-to-conflict/23588. The relative quiet for 2011 has proven a bit of a surprise. However, the death of Kim Jong Il may have removed the one steadying force both in terms of international relations and internal rivalries. Delicate String of Rulers: North Korea may appear like one-man rule, but it has an established military and political elite that furthered privileged status under the veneer of an absolute ruler. Personality cult has been more a tool than reality. The fact that Kim Jong Il’s successor appears to be a third son, Kim Jong-un, in his 20’s and clearly uncomfortable with public exposure only heightens the risk that a delicate silk string may become undone even as the ruling line appears more durable than ever. The risk is that faced with many internal as well as external challenges North Korea’s longstanding elite who stand behind the de-facto Kim dynasty (The “Great Leader” – Kim Il-sung was the first of now three in this string of rulers), may launch into another offensive action, as has been precedent in the past. The new North Korean leader’s youth (born in 1983 or 1984 depending on the source) translates into significantly greater maneuver within the ruling elite and thus greater uncertainty for a country already viewed as unstable. Expect this uncertainty to be reflected in the already troubled financial markets for some time even if no overt action threatens political standoff or conflict. Opportunity for positive change is not a term employed by most commentators with the passing of the "Dear Leader." The type of change witnessed in other autocratic regimes recently in Asia and the Middle East and an opening for democracy- or even something similar to today's China is not seen on the horizon. Frankly, the hope is for more of the same - change is viewed as being too volatile and risky rather than an opportunity. Photo – Father & Son – Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook – Become a Fan at “Bosnia TV” and/or “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter - Follow us at DiplomaticallyX “WarCrimesJustice” Channel - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice