Aftershocks-Iran, Pakistan & Afghanistan Summit
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Region known for earthquakes, this one did not receive much recognition beyond. Perhaps the photos from the recent meeting present a more amicable picture than the state of actual relations between the 3 countries. Nonetheless, there are at least a couple of significant messages that can be derived from summit in Islamabad which frankly received underwhelming coverage in US and western press – without any further deep analysis, some broad considerations: ---- Afghanistan’s progress toward peace does depends on its two bigger neighbors. The influence of Pakistan is already much discussed. However, Iran’s long border and large Shia majority in western Afghanistan (Heart) are only partially indicative of influence. Iran almost went to war with Taliban over dozen years earlier after mass killings by Taliban of Shia and some Iranian diplomats in Heart region. No love lost between Taliban and Iran regime/people. ---- Any attack upon Iran’s nuclear facilities, regardless of military form or rationalization, will have immediate impact with neighbors and longer-term aftershocks in region including Iraq and Afghanistan where US and Washington have weighed in with heavy human and other investments. An attack seen as led/sanctioned by US would probably force Iran’s neighbors to choose between far away Washington and cross border neighbors – not promising for US or Western democratic allies. ---- Implications run much broader into Central Asia where Washington has had some success, including establishing military outposts in soft underbelly of former Soviet Union Republics. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey – Follow @MuhamedSacirbey Facebook = Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow us at DiplomaticallyX “Pakistan” Channel - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/pakistan & NATO Mission Channel - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/nato-mission