History makes fools of us in our expectation of the prevailing trend, especially those who believe that they are in control of its course and writing. This year it has been an especially cruel joke upon the icons – Pharaoh Mubarek of Egypt coming most prominently to mind. On the other hand, too frequently the reality of change is lagging behind the expectation, like a punch line that still waits, hopes for the audience to laugh. Perhaps we should consider making April Fools Day an international holiday, celebrated by the United Nations like so many others but this one more worthy than most just to keep us humble in our projections. If you are around long enough to try to project the turn of world affairs, the joke will be on you and of course I’m no exception. Rather than disconcerting though, I find it revitalizing that man and nature has a way of breaking inertia’s claim to the future. Here are some of my favorite punch lines for this year: · “Gradual Transition” – The mantra of most extended life regimes to try to fool the people into something that is all but change. No doubt, some such extended life leaderships do believe their own promises for reform, but the joke is on them as the time for incrementalism has already passed by when they feel the shove to move – best example Hosni Mubarek and his international allies. · “Cease Fire” – Great to stop any sort of shooting and killing. However, the term has started to lose its genuineness as calls for cease fire are increasingly employed as last resort tactic by those who have lived by the sword and are now facing imminent death by the sword – best joke example, Ivory Coast’s Laurent Gbagbo. · “Islamists will take power” – the bogeyman that one employs to scare the western democracies and particularly Washington from supporting aspirations for change and democracy in much of the Arab world. · “It’s Al Qaeda and drugs” – Colonel Gaddafi trying to do one better over the Islamist punch line above. While the Anne Coulters of the world might love to believe this line of reasoning, they are also likely to turn their hate upon all the heathens – for them there is no good Muslim or Jew or Buddhist or Hindu or Catholic…. · “All my people love me … die to protect me” – Now, the bad joke is on “his (Libyan) people” all of whom he would sacrifice to stay in power. · “I will close Guantanamo within one year” of my election – President Barak Obama has unfortunately made this into a joke on America and the rule of law. · “Multiculturalism has utterly failed” in Germany – Angela Merkel wants to take a step or two or three back in time – beware that Germany does not have too many steps that it can go back before it reaches the war fought in the name of Third Reich homogeneity. · China’s “Confucius Peace Prize” to counter Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese dissident Liu Xiabo The London paper “The Globe and Mail” dubbed it the “Made in China Peace Prize” which already brings into question its durability. · Hugo Chavez threatens … well something! Every time I hear about Venezuela these days Hugo Chavez is threatening something: cut off oil to the US or military action against Colombia (it was Honduras a year or so earlier.) Chavez now is even threatening his own military if it does not threaten others enough. Well, you get the picture, but then he ruins it all by offering to mediate Libya. Of course that was all in the cause of legitimizing Colonel Gaddafi’s unabashed militarism against his own people. Machismo has two new poster boys – Gaddafi and Chavez, and Silvio Berlusconi was trying so hard but still did not manage to make it to Number 1 despite paying for it! · Robert Mugabe is now clamoring for gradual change from within to solve Africa’s problem …generian brats. Why not, it worked so well for him. He has managed to turn a people’s revolution for majority rule in Zimbabwe into a rebellion to personal aggrandizement. · “Democratic elections held in Myanmar!” · “No risk from radiation” – The Japanese people and we are all still waiting for another cruel punch line from this catastrophe made much worse by now clearly dubious assurances of “nuclear plant contingencies and safety.” · Wikileaks…. I’m censoring myself lest I be prosecuted for revealing national secrets and end up like US Private Bradley Manning – oh yes, I‘ve been there. The rule of law is great, but you have to make certain it also works to deter the government when it invokes national security as the basis to act with impunity but then claims the right to maintain absolute silence when prompted to make consistent its actions with the US laws and fundamental Constitutional principles. Well, you get the point. This could go on for much longer. It would be not only fun though but also perhaps a worthy exercise to have a day once a year when we all can take stock of broken promises and missed opportunities. We could try to do it in mid-September when all or most of the globe’s leaders come to United Nations HQ in New York. Unfortunately most do not come to hear but speak. In my experience at the UN General Assemblies in the past, it was most memorable to me as to how the meetings between heads of state and ministers were scheduled just long enough so that each could speak at the other and no time was foreseen to have a dialogue. Everyone though finds time for the huge group portraits, implicitly understanding that time will erase all of us. So, not to forget, how about April Fools Day to engage in an exercise of self-evaluation. Preferably in person at the United Nations. I’ll start – this blog may be too ambitious in this objective, but with the most humility that I can muster, we have to start somewhere to keep ourselves honest – let’s see if I recall this blog next April Fools Day? International April Fools Day - just to keep all of us honest ... and humble! By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book – “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – DiplomaticallyX For more Foolishness go to UN-DiplomaticTV - www.undiplomatictv.com