Much talk about the Bitcoin ETF.  This will merge the two worlds of crypto and equities for the first time.  One thing I was surprised about in the crypto world, was that not many were from the stock trading world, understood technical analysis, and investor psychology.  I'd say 1 out of 10 understand these things more then me.  Anyways as we venture into a new world, I'd like to give the crypto world a lil 101 on how the market works, this will help every1 understand the unpredictable results of the ETF's due to cause and effect.  A lot of investor in the stock market dont understand Bitcoin and think they can short it just because it gets parabolic.  In fact if one understands how Cyptos work and trade in the order book, the price of BTC is really irrelevant and unlimited.  When a trader buys a stock all they can lose is what they put in.  Buy 1000 usd worth and thats all u can lose even with leverage most of time.  When a trader shorts a stock, they borrow shares then sell them immediately hoping to buy back in at a lower price, give back the shares and keep the difference.  So if one borrows 1000 worth of a stock, sells and it goes higher the amount the short seller has to pay to cover the cost of buying is unlimited.  So when BTC falls a nice amount after ETF is trading, the short sellers will have to cover to take profits and the winkelvoss will be forced to buy more bitcoin. This is the exact functionality that will limit the downside and reduce volatility.  So it really all depend on investor psychology that will determine weather the ETF squeezes btc higher or just puts a floor in during crashes.  Another variable is Bitcoins relationship with other assets.  Ive done some research that suggest that btc and gold have a slight inverse correlation going back to spring of 2013.  There are periods when btc and gold trade together which has caused this inverse correlation  not to even exist to most eyes.  It is a consensus that bitcoin is uncorrelated to most assets.  But ive found that btc and gold both trade sideways and lower during huge financial events.  Such as usd rallying, extreme bond sell offs ( bitcoin and gold can go higher together) equity spikes etc. But for the most part since 2013 there is accumulating evidence that some gold investors are diversifying into bitcoin.  This can make the ETF effects more unpredictable.  In my opinion it is the remittance market that holds the potential to send BTC higher not ETF's ( there will be 2, tho lil has been written about the ETF 'BIT' that may beat the Winklevoss' to market).  It is my opinion that the ETF will have a neutral effect for the most part, a lil more volatility at first .. then progressively less.  I think a lot of short traders will get burnt in bitcoin and will create an epic short squeeze that will send Bitcoin to test the highs between 818 and 936.  After that i expect btc to test 644 again before going higher next year. 2200 by 2016 4700 by 2018 Is my target and is based on 1% of population using btc, bitcoin taking a small piece of the remittance market, and momentum caused by investors.  395 is the line in the sand, bitcoin can be bot down to that point.