Many have dreamt of conquering Lahore, and why wouldn’t they? The crown jewel of Punjab; the city of gardens has always fascinated travellers, conquerors, emperors and other assorted power-hungry politician types.
Rich in culture, steeped in history, marinated in tradition and swimming with people, Lahore is also the beating heart of a very politically charged Pakistan.
If Karachi is the economic hub and Islamabad the centre of power, Lahore is the political capital: where deals are brokered and influence is currency.
Punjab has always been a very strong indicator of who might next take over the reins of the government, just because it has more national assembly seats than any other province.
This is something that Imran Khan seems to have realised, of late. The current protests first began in Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s May 11 rally in Islamabad, where Imran formally opened a major front against the government over the issue of gerrymandering and other sundry electoral malpractices.
Take a look: A wobbly stage for the PTI
But, as he comes back to Lahore, the town where he went to school and the city where he has lived in for a large part of his life, the reception he gets may be a little different.
Exit routes
Since it is located right next to the border, roads heading east out of the city are pretty much dead-ends. But being at the centre of all the road, rail and air traffic networks, thousands of people do pass through the city every day, going in one direction or the other.
The most obvious exit routes are the M2 Motorway and the GT Road. Kasur lies to the south-east; Pattoki to the south-west; the Sikh holy city of Nankana Sahib to the west; Sheikhupura and Muridke lie north-west and north of the city, respectively.
All these towns are well connected with Lahore, in terms of road links. Sure, the PTI would be able to block some of the main roads that come into the city, but it would be nearly impossible to block everything. In most parts of the city, life will continue as if nothing had happened, because ignoring their problems is something Lahoris are very good at.
‘One big village’
Lahore has always been derided by Karachi-ites for being ‘one big village’. Having lived in a metropolis like Karachi, I can say this perception is not all that misplaced.
But this also means that Lahore is not really built like a city; it has rather grown over time and gobbled up smaller settlements on its outskirts. Therefore, there are endless opportunities for rat-running and there are always at least three or four different ways to get anywhere you would want to go.
Also read: Shutdown to be a peaceful protest: PTI
Also, Lahoris are a peculiar bunch. In addition to the usual superlatives — ‘loud’, ‘boisterous’, occasionally ‘smelly’ and very, very ‘politically incorrect’ — the people of Lahore are not particularly famous for their patience.
Granted, it takes a lot to bring Lahoris out on the streets, but once out of bed, there is no one scarier.
The few in the PTI who believe it is doable to bring life in the city to a halt, bring to the table their experience with Karachi and the strikes that can easily (and successfully) paralyse life in the country’s largest city. But they’re not in touch with a few ground realities.
For better or for worse, the lower middle class and the lower class are not big fans of the PTI, nor are those who hold power and influence within the city. The PTI’s support base in Lahore consists almost entirely of students and society aunties.
To cripple the city's functioning using only their support will certainly not be easy.
Punjab police – the game changer?
The thorn in the side of any PTI protest has been police action. After the Aug 30 melee on Constitution Avenue, the government has been making a conscious effort not to confront PTI workers so they are not drawn into a potentially violent situation where a clash becomes inevitable.
But if the PTI tries to ‘shut down’ Lahore, by hook, crook or the use of force, they will be up against the nastiest, meanest, most remorseless band of ruffians ever inducted into a law enforcement agency: the Punjab police.
See: Police baton-charges blind protesters in Lahore, several injured
Armed with batons, riot shields, teargas and pretty much anything they can get their hands on, Punjab’s jawaans and not-so-jawaans are known for being hard as nails. Badass to the bone, these moustached 'muhafiz of the people' let nothing stop them from targeting their gung-ho machismo at anything that befalls their path. Seriously, they will beat your grandmother to a bloody pulp at the drop of a hat.
Given their track record, one should trust these brutes only as far as one can throw them, which we all know is not a long way at all.
I’m not saying that they’re bad people, per se, but if I were a PTI worker and I’d been asked to lead the charge in Lahore, I’d put my estate in order and kiss my parents goodbye before setting off.
So, they will most certainly be a huge and highly volatile factor on December 16.
Traders in the pocket
Lahore is the seat of the Sharifs, whose power flows from the support of traders, businessmen and industrialists that make up the pile of money that Lahore is currently sitting on. It is not in their interests to allow the people of the city to be taken hostage — they believe that is exactly what Mr Khan wants to do — by an upstart such as the PTI.
Most major political players have put their weight behind the ruling party, which is significant.
Know more: ‘Traders have choice to honour PTI call’
In addition, the People’s Party has also been mustering support in Punjab recently. The party leadership recently turned out to celebrate its foundation day in Lahore, and with the completion of the new Bilawal House in the city’s swanky Bahria Town suburb, the city is very much a seat of power for the old left (or whatever is left of the left).
The youth of the city may be the force that is egging Mr Khan on, but young people can be deceptive.
It is this very city where Mr Khan — who was in hiding at the time of the 2007 emergency — was thrashed and turned over to the cops after he made a surprise appearance at the Punjab University.
Roughs from the Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Jamiat Talaba, betrayed him to the authorities then, and there is nothing that can stop them, or other groups like them from doing something to sabotage his rally again.
But, all that said, the question is not whether or not Lahore will reject Imran Khan — it must, if the ruling party is to survive.
The real question is: what difference will that make, in the grand scheme of things?
