UN General Assembly Resolution pressed the Syrian regime to accept an Arab League Plan just as Damascus was about to agree and sign up. (Photo Above).The UNGA Resolution was adopted by 133 to 11 with 43 abstentions, and it pressed the Syrian regime to accept the plan “in its entirety.” It calls on Syrian authorities to facilitate for a substantial force of Arab League observers, allow for independent media access and cooperate fully with the independent international commission of inquiry founded by the UN Human Rights Council. See Film Report: -“Syria Inquiry Human Rights Council” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/syria-inquiry-human-rights-council/26584 Condemning Syrian Authorities: The UNGA Resolution also “strongly condemns the continued grave and systematic human rights violations by the Syrian authorities,” citing such examples of arbitrary executions, enforced disappearances, torture of detainees and the persecution of protesters and human rights defenders. The resolution also demands an immediate end to the human rights violations and calls on Syrian authorities to comply with their obligations under international human rights law to protect their population. Read: “Syria Still Not Providing Access to Human Rights Investigators” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/syria-still-not-providing-access-to-un-human-rights-investigators-by-ambassador-mo/28402 Arab League Sanctions to Remain? At least until the Arab League Plan is implemented, it is expected that the sanctions previously imposed will remain in place. Observers are expected to be deployed by end of the year/month December 2011. Read: - “Arab League Sanctions on Syria Assad Regime” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/arab-league-sanctions-on-syria-assad-regime-by-ambassador-mo/42079 UN Security Council Resolution - Referral to the ICC: The UN Security Council draft resolution introduced by the Russian Federation appears to be still in backroom negotiations. (Read: - “Russia Unexpectedly Introduces Syria Resolution in UN Security Council” -http://diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/russia-unexpectedly-introduces-syria-resolution-in-un-security-council-by-susan-sacirbey-for-ambassador-mo/42896). It is now more likely to be shaped by the implementation of the Arab League-Syria agreement – something that is likely to be subject to the pull and push of ongoing discussion between Damascus and the Arab League leadership, particularly its Secretary General Nabil Elaraby. (All Photos). From my personal experience in dealing with then Ambassador Elaraby as Egypt’s UN Ambassador in the 1990’s, he understands both motivations and how to assess the relative strength of positions. The Arab League has take huge strides to move forward on Syria beyond what most could have envisioned earlier this year. Much of it is due to Elaraby’s leadership. (Read: -“New Arab League Head - Right Choice for Times” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/new-arab-league-head-right-choice-for-the-times-by-ambassador-mo/28411 The Role of One Key Personality - Real and Facade of Leverage: Elaraby knows that his Arab League support is not solid but rather brought together by the will of power. The Arab League position also was not unanimous – key Syria neighbors as Lebanon and Iraq are likely to be porous doors for the sanctions regime. The UN Security Council referring Syria to the International Criminal Court remains unlikely. As a former Judge on the International Court of Justice, (Bottom Photo), Elaraby understands the might of legality but also its limitations until the matter reaches the Court, in this instance the ICC. (Read: -"Referring Syrian Regime to ICC" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/referring-syrian-regime-to-international-criminal-court-by-ambassador-mo/42816). Beyond China and Russia, India, South Africa and the US have all their reasons to avoid ICC referral - more on that in near-future article. The current agreement with Syria is for the Arab League to put its foot into the Syrian door. Rather than capitulation to the Assad regime, it is a way to bring about gradual change and the necessary pressure to deliver at the right moment a substantive transformation in Syria. Undoubtedly it will be a process in grinding down – each side trying to gain leverage of the other. The UN Security Council, UN’s Human Rights organs, Turkey as critical neighbor, NGO’s and perhaps even the ICC could come to play a critical role in this assertion of political/diplomatic leverage to go along with the Arab League’s own sanctions and efforts. The rapidly evolving balance of power between the opposition and regime will also become a bit of cat and mouse. It will be an extended process, perhaps taking months or longer, and I do not believe that Elaraby would have ventured down this road unless he felt prepared for the grind and felt that this dynamics was a better option than holding pat to a static sanctions regime which could become porous and lose support and patience. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook – Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow us at DiplomaticallyX "WarCrimesJustice" Channel diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice