China as Top Threat? by Ambassador mo
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President Obama described it as redeploying military assets to the Asia-Pacific region, but the real perceived threat is China. Flanked by all his military chiefs behind him made it unofficially official – China is the top threat. The recent deployment of US troops and formalization of Australia/US defense pact was an early indication. Read: - “US-Australia Pact to Deter China” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/us-australia-pact-to-deter-china-by-ambassador-mo/41870. Australia with its wealth of resources critical to China’s growth and its strategic location is perhaps a desirable asset in the long term for a mercantilist China. However, the more immediate perceived confrontation point is closer to China’s coast. Perhaps some might see it as North Korea or a mainland threat to Taiwan. Of course, Iran and Afghanistan are also part of Asia, but that is more of yesterday's or today's story but tomorrow's challenges and opportunities are in the Far East. The threat or perhaps even opportunity for strategic realignment is in the dispute over the Spratly Islands – a group of largely uninhabited atolls in the South China Sea which are surrounded by seabeds believed rich in energy and other resources and just also happen to straddle key maritime navigation lanes. China is farthest from the area of the countries that are making a claim (name of body of water would be more accurately "Way South of China Sea") – Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, but Beijing has become ever more assertive in trying to instill its claim. The relatively smaller countries, including Vietnam, now see the US as their most critical ally in countering Beijing’s claims and assertiveness. These countries are also members of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Read: diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/vietnam-china-position-for-a-faceoff-along-with-philippines-malaysia-brunei-and-taiwan-by-ambassador-mo/29292. Realignment of alliances appears almost inevitable While a decade or two earlier it was United States dominance that may have been resented and would draw demonstrators to the streets in many capitals of the region, it is China hegemony that is now seen as the overbearing threat due to proximity, rising economic might as well as military buildup and a history of half century earlier when "Red" China was associated with a series of proxy rebellions purportedly centered around minority Chinese populations in countries as Indonesia and Malaysia. How real the threat is becomes irrelevant if the perception is rising. I don’t think that Beijing has been particularly adept at dealing with the negative perception. China’s leadership has been focused on the US while dealing with the region as “bull in a China shop” – excuse the pun. Now, the US may be perceived as the “White Knight” by many of China’s smaller and increasingly intimidated neighbors. In this way, China’s own recent rapid military build-up may have invited the one thing it was intended to deter – US military as well as diplomatic influence in the region. China's recent human rights crackdown at home with respect to dissent and minorities may only be adding to apprehension of neighbors. Read - "Unprecedented Scrutiny of China Human Rights" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/unprecedented-scrutiny-of-china-human-rights-un-by-ambassador-mo/43100 Also Read: - “Obama-China on Currency & Trade” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/obama-china-on-currency-trade-by-ambassador-mo/41743 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook – Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow us at DiplomaticallyX