The “Contact Group on Libya” is concluding its meeting in Doha addressing probably 2 of the 3 most critical considerations important for the ultimate triumph of the Libyan opposition. Money and weapons of self-defense are 2 critical considerations. Some of the press came away not satisfied that there was either unity or clarity regarding the position of the international community on Libya. Regarding the former, absolute unity is not probable or likely with such a contentious issue as to objectives but particularly strategy to achieve. Nonetheless, the pivotal and public role of the United Kingdom, Italy, the UN Secretary General as well as Qatar encompassed a broad consensus even if not absolute. The portrait was effective, and it was also evident that the United States was in the picture even if not at the forefront of the photograph. As to any lack of clarity, there was actually to the more experienced diplomatic eye an unambiguous even if not plainly transparent result at least as to a few key political, military and financial considerations: • Weapons for “self-defense” as well as non-lethal equipment would be facilitated. The how would not be discussed, except that it was clear funds would be available for such. Relevant UN Resolutions would be interpreted by most of the key governments (including Washington and London) so that the opposition would be able to procure weapons. This is not too different from the legal interpretation and methodology applied by friends of Bosnia & Herzegovina and its internationally recognized Government to overcome the overwhelming built in weapons advantage that Milosevic’s Belgrade and its proxies held as a consequence of the “Yugoslav arms embargo.” • Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini was clear that the frozen Libyan funds in Italy – a very meaningful sum: “This are money of Libyans. These are not moneys of Colonel Gaddafi.” It was made clear that such could be used to address the fundamental needs of food, medicines and governance by the opposition and also “self-defense.” (See our posting from April 7, 2011 – “It Becomes About Access to the Money-Italy & France Recognize Libyan Rebels: diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/it-becomes-about-access-to-the-money-italy-france-recognize-libyan-rebels-by-ambassador-mo/27075 • Colonel Gaddafi must step down, and no solution or even cease-fire is possible with Gaddafi and family staying in Libya. • The African Union (AU) “cease-fire” initiative was rather brusquely set aside, at least in diplomatic terms by not receiving even an honorable mention. The AU though has been behind the curve not only on Libya but also Ivory Coast (even as compared to ECOWAS – the Economic Community of West African States). The results in Zimbabwe of AU’s facilitation for change have gradually eroded back to the old despot Robert Mugabe back in absolute power and the democratic opposition again in fear. Not likely that the broader international community is to adopt such precedent for Libya by endorsing the AU’s cease fire plan which Colonel Gaddafi has promptly endorsed – and why not – it leaves him in Libya and effectively capable of clawing back into absolute control. The Libyan opposition – National Transitional Council – has also walked away from Doha with greater legitimization. For a movement that controls half of Libya, and tenuously, time is also playing on its side - perhaps even more so than for Gaddafi and supporters - if it can employ the opportunity to translate into military might on the ground and capacity to govern and safeguard the needs of citizens under its authority. Some fear time can also work to effectively divide Libya with Gaddafi controlling Tripoli and more. That is a real risk, but it ignores the corrosive dynamics at work against Gaddafi and the positive effects upon the “opposition.” The main issue seemingly left not addressed in Doha is apparent need/calls for NATO to be more active and robust. That though is an issue best addressed within NATO’s own institutional frameworks. I might take seriously Turkey’s reservations. However, purported Belgian reservations cannot stand in comparison to UK, French and/or US inclinations. The main consideration may be more a practical one though – with US military assets pulled back to a supporting role, for appearance and political purposes, are there enough other planes and resources for NATO’s ambitions over Libya? All in all, the message for my eye and ear is diplomatically unambiguous even not all was said plainly and discretion left transparency wanting. Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Hamad al-Thani the host in Doha (an old colleague during the Bosnian conflict), had a good idea what he could achieve, and he got most of it for the Libyan opposition and Qatar’s role. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book find at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – DiplomaticallyX More Reports at www.diplomaticallyincorrect.org Including - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/it-becomes-about-access-to-the-money-italy-france-recognize-libyan-rebels-by-ambassador-mo/27075 More at - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_posts