Fighting the IS: Holes in the game plan

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The US-led coalition needs to go beyond a military offensive and work out a comprehensive plan for winning over hearts and minds. To do this, they will first have to offer a counter-narrative to the concept of an Islamic state. -Photo by AP
The US-led coalition needs to go beyond a military offensive and work out a comprehensive plan for winning over hearts and minds. To do this, they will first have to offer a counter-narrative to the concept of an Islamic state. -Photo by AP

The fight against militants of the Islamic State group may have an unintended consequence: further widening the Shia-Sunni divide.

Aware of this possibility, the United States has formed a coalition of Middle Eastern nations to combat IS, which includes key states like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan and the only Arab Sha majority country of Iraq.

The United States also has distanced itself from the Syrian government, which is headed by a leader strongly opposed by Syrian Sunnis, President Bashar al-Assad.

Also read: Obama spells out strategy for combating IS militants

Instead of helping the Syrian government to eliminate the Sunni-dominate IS, the United States wants to raise a force of moderate Sunni opposition fighters to replace the militants.

The purpose behind this exercise is to convince the Syrian Sunnis that the proposed US-led military offensive is being launched only to eliminate IS. There is no plan to subdue the country’s largest sectarian group, the Sunnis.

By including Iraq, the United States is also trying to convince the dominant Alawite minority that their interests will also be protected.

If the United States succeeds in achieving its targets, the plan will have a very positive impact on the entire region.

The Syrian people will be the immediate beneficiary of this success, as it would allow them to live peacefully in a multi-sect state where interests of each group can be protected.

It can also allay the concerns of Shias in Lebanon and Iraq who fear that a Syria run by Sunni religious extremists can create many problems for them.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt will also benefit from this situation.

Both have Sunni militants within their ranks and understand that an increase in militants’ influence in Syria can tilt the balance of power against them as well. Saudi Arabia will also be able to protect its religious and tribal interests in Syria without strengthening the militants.

But this win-win situation for all is too good to happen. What’s more likely is that this fight may degenerate into an ending war with no clear winner.

If this happens, it will create new fragmentations within the Arab world, pitching various religious sects and ethnic groups against each other.

The region’s non-Arab actors, such Turkey, Iran and the Kurds, may also be sucked into this conflict.

The Kurds may take advantage of this situation and establish a sovereign Kurdish state, which will be opposed by all three major ethnic groups in the region, Arabs, Iranians and Turks.

This divide will have huge impact on the entire Muslim world where Sunni and Shia groups may line up each other. And for the first time in modern history, we may actually see Shia and Sunni armies fighting each other.



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