As anticipation builds over a rate hike from the Federal Reserve, fund managers say they’re reducing their U.S. stock positions and piling money intoEurope.
A whopping 63% of fund managers list Europe as the region they would most like to overweight in the next year, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for March, released on Tuesday. This is up from 18% in January and the highest level since the question was first asked more than a decade ago.
This shift in outlook comes as the European Central Bank has begun its €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) quantitative easing program aimed at curbing deflation and the euro trades at 12-year lows to the U.S. dollar.
“Bullishness towards European stocks has reached uncharted territory,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist at BofA. ”Demand for financials highlights confidence in domestic growth, while belief in European exporters is building on gains seen last month,” she said.
The proportion of European investors overweight banks has skyrocketed to 22%, from a 26% underweight last month. Similarly, the number of investors overweight insurance stocks has risen to 31%, from a 3% underweight last month.
A tumbling euro is also expected to give European equities a lift, as Europe-based companies with a global presence see a boost in exports and profits.
“As we expect the euro to continue to depreciate against the dollar, European equities are also likely to benefit from higher exports, an important consideration given that 50% of revenue for European large-cap companies comes from outside the eurozone,” notes Russ Koesterich, BlackRock BLK +0.17%’s Global Chief Investment Strategist.
“Investors should look at individual company performance, not their countries of domicile,” agrees David Lafferty, Chief Market Strategist at Natixis Global Management. “The Euro is getting crushed, meaning earnings for European multinationals will strengthen.”
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