Hugo Chavez reportedly offered sanctuary to Gaddafi? Now, the international coalition has adopted the objective to force the Libyan dictator out of Tripoli (London Conference on Libya 29-3-2011). The language stops short of formally calling for Gaddafi’s ouster by force, but his continued rule is not put out as a possible in any potential settlement of the conflict. The logic of Resolution 1973 is progressively being stretched, as I foresaw, to effectively define Gaddafi himself as a threat to the Libyan civilian population. So where could Gaddafi end-up if he is forced out? No Welcome in Arab or Broader Muslim World There is no Arab state that will give Gaddafi refuge. Saudi Arabia, (presumably as a form of sanctuary due to its role as sovereign over the holly cities of Islam), has in past become the new residence for previous exiled leaders, most recently Zine El Abidine Ben Ali former strongman of Tunisia. However, Gaddafi has particularly worn out his welcome there and almost any other Arab state. Further, what Arab regime that may be now facing calls from its own population for reform wants to import someone else’s radioactive political waste? The same can be more broadly attributed to Islamic countries, (members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference). Possible New Homes for Gaddafi In Latin America? Thus, it’s fine to speak of exiling Colonel Gaddafi, but where could he go? How about Zimbabwe, Cuba or Venezuela? President Hugo Chavez has been an admirer of Gaddafi’s many policies and presumably style? These two soul mates have more than just a casual relationship. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry had previously denied reports of asylum offers for Gaddafi. However, the Chavez regime’s rationalization of the means employed by Gaddafi’s forces to suppress the Libyan opposition have stood out even apart from other Gaddafi friends in Latin America -Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and Evo Morales of Bolivia (both of whose relationship with Gaddafi was facilitated by Chavez). Hugo Chavez has also offered his own peace plans and mediation to resolve the Libyan conflict. There was even an offer to take the “mediation” effort to Libya. No one took Chavez seriously, least the Libyan opposition or UN Security Council. Chavez’s injection failed to forestall further UN Security Council resolutions and military intervention or for that matter harvest any new support for Gaddafi’s survival. That should have been enough of a hint to Chavez – he risked losing the few friends he still had by trying to rescue the most ridiculous. Notably, another Hugo Chavez friend, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad has not been sympathetic to Gaddafi, but rather passionate in anticipating his demise. Could Hugo Chavez though gain some comfort from Venezuela’s big neighbor Brazil, which abstained on the “all necessary means” language and Resolution 1973? Certainly Brazil was not enthusiastic about the use of force, and has forged a foreign policy - from Iran nuclear proliferation and other recent global disputes - that is differentiated from the positions assumed by Washington? Could this not open the door for Chavez to welcome Gaddafi? Referring Libya/Gaddafi to International Criminal Court – Blocks Gaddafi’s Exit Options and Those Who Might Consider Offering Asylum Not so fast Amigo Gaddafi! Brazil has been steadfast in voting and endorsing broad compliance with another UN Security Resolution almost lost in the public discussions – Resolution 1970 – by which the Gaddafi regime and its key personalities (mostly Gaddafi family) have been sanctioned. Most notably, Resolution 1970 referred the matter to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation and potential prosecution for grave violations of international humanitarian law. Gaddafi is highly likely to be indicted by the ICC. All states, particularly state parties, would be obliged to turn him over to the ICC for prosecution if that occurs. Almost all Latin American and Caribbean states are "state parties" to the ICC, including Venezuela and Bolivia – although not Nicaragua. (Regardless, under Resolution 1970 and international law, even non-state parties are obliged to comply with ICC arrest/prosecution warrants). Further, Latin American states, particularly those that have gone through their own dark periods of human rights abuses, have been at forefront in defining and supporting the ICC. Argentina gave the Court its first Prosecutor Luis Ocampo. Can UN Security Council Block ICC Prosecution? Is it not possible that the UN Security Council, (especially in view of Russian, Chinese, Indian, Brazilian or even German unease with military interventionism in Libya now), would give Colonel Gaddafi immunity from prosecution by the ICC? No – immunity/amnesty is not recognized by international law for grave violations of international humanitarian law. The Council could technically delay execution of an arrest warrant, but even that is not likely in view of probable US and European opposition to any such foiling of Gaddafi’s prosecution. In Washington and most European capitals Gaddafi’s long history of facilitating/executing a variety of alleged terrorist actions over the last four decades would only sharpen the political demand for his prosecution by any Court. Precedent of Charles Taylor: Asylum to Prosecution Gaddafi really has few exits out of Tripoli, at least alive, beyond ending up before the ICC. Recall the case of Charles Taylor, the former President of Liberia – who had been granted exile by Nigeria only to be forced before the ad-hoc Tribunal for Sierra Leone – once charges had been filed. Gaddafi is likely to have in mind this precedent of another former “friend.” Further Gaddafi’s sons and close family, already named for sanctions under Resolution 1970, are also mindful of what most likely awaits them if they give up power. The Gaddafis’ chances may be not promising if they continue the fight, but the personal risks may be not much more attractive in exile. Gaddafi More Embarrassing as Fugitive as Opposed to Defendant Before ICC The “Coalition” is clever in demanding that Gaddafi step out of power and even leaving the door open for him to exit, but not specifying currently that he must end up before the ICC. For now, the fact that the ICC has not yet indicted, provides ample room to be ambiguous about questions of whether Gaddafi can exit Libya and where. However, undoubtedly Washington and European capitals hold the evidence of Gaddafi’s war crimes as to be able to have certainty about his eventual indictment. They are probably not inclined to repeat the same mistakes of previous American “mediators” who allowed Mladic and Karadzic to avoid arrest. Of course, Gaddafi has now been described as having American blood on his hands – not Bosnian or merely Libyan. Neither can Gaddafi embarrass Washington or European capitals as much by testifying as a defendant, (especially compared to awkwardness he could present as fugitive from international justice). Had Chavez Seen Gaddafi’s Tripoli as His Potential Sanctuary? Hugo Chavez would only bring the wrath of the ICC (and more likely than not the UN Security Council) upon himself if he gave asylum to Gaddafi. While soul mates they have been, Chavez may have also had an opportunist’s affair with Gaddafi – perhaps clinging onto the vision in the murky future of Gaddafi’s Tripoli becoming a potential sanctuary in the event that he was forced to flee Caracas. Every despot needs a palace refuge of last resort, but Tripoli is likely no longer to qualify for Chavez as Gaddafi is already but gone from the scene of rogue royalty. Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book – “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – DiplomaticallyX More Related Reports at www.diplomaticallyincorrect.org including: Declaration of War on Gaddafi - “No-Fly Zone” Resolution on Libya, by Ambassador mo “All Necessary Measures – War on Gaddafi” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/all-necessary-measures-war-on-gaddafiun-security-council/2569 International Criminal Court Game Changer, by Ambassador mo UN Security Council Arms Raised, Thumbs Down on Gaddafi, by Ambassador mo