As I've already mentioned, barring a cataclysmic act of God or an unforeseen Craigslist photo scandal, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee for President of the United States. After blowing his competitors out of the water in this week’s Illinois Primary, Romney all but assured himself of the nomination, and the endorsement of establishment Republican leaders such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush have all but sealed the deal. Once the confetti falls at the GOP convention this August, it will be Romney who will bear his party’s battle standard as he marches to war against the Obama Money Machine.
It’s very early to attempt to game out November, but it’s never too early to look at some of the issues that could end up defining the campaign. Can President Obama once again seduce America with his catchy rhetoric about a better tomorrow? Or will the American people accept the notion that we need a hands-on manager with tangible business acumen to get the nation back on track? Here are some key factors that are going to influence that decision.
Iran: Republican candidates have come just short of declaring that they will sail into the Strait of Hormuz and shove their proverbial foot up Iran’s backside if they are elected President. Obama has preached a doctrine of diplomacy in the world’s most volatile region. Also, he has been criticized by the Pro-Israel community for not being supportive enough of the region’s lone democracy. If the conflict between Israel and Iran, or any of the other players in the region, such as Syria, intensifies, it will be a critical campaign issue that could overshadow economic issues.
Romney’s Immigration Problem: Once upon a time, Mitt Romney was, for all intents and purposes, a moderate. Oh, what a difference a Tea Party influence makes! In efforts to placate the Republican base in battleground states like Arizona-where Romney won handily- he gave his full-throated support to Arizona’s controversial immigration bill, which is profoundly unpopular among Hispanic voters. Obama, by contrast has empowered the Department of Justice to tear these bills apart in Federal Court- and these efforts have largely been successful. Despite the fact that Hispanic voters in America have been trending conservative- look no further than Florida Senator Marco Rubio as proof- Romney may have solidly disenfranchised himself from a segment of the population that will undoubtedly have it’s largest electoral influence over a Presidential outcome in history.
Obama’s LGBT Problem: Gay donors make up a sizable chunk of the Democratic party’s fundraising base, and many of those donors pumped millions of dollars into his campaign coffers in 2008. However, the gay community has grown visibly frustrated with Obama because despite ending “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” and refusing to enforce the Respect for Marriage Act, he has not publicly supported Same-Sex marriage, which has now become law in eight states. The issue is a non-starter with many conservative independent voters. However, Obama may decide to embrace marriage equality if he faces a cash shortage heading into the November home stretch.
Everyone’s women problem: House Speaker John Boehner may have stepped on a land mine when he really ticked off nearly three quarters of American women by picking a fight over which employers should be able to the purchase of contraception via their healthcare plans. Republican ‘values voters’ generally get queasy over the idea of mandating contraceptives, and they largely the same voting bloc that has been complicit in dozens of anti-abortion bills and Planned Parenthood de-fundings that have been moving through state legislatures. Nearly 60% of women identify themselves as Democratic voters. If they are sufficiently annoyed by Conservative attacks on their reproductive rights, it could be the genesis of Romney's undoing. Romney needs to find a way to excite women, whereas Obama needs to use these issues as a reason why women, who trend Democratic overall, should show up at the polls on Election Day.
Ties to Tuition: Both candidates are going to take very different positions on how our Education dollars should be spent. Obama has championed student loan reform- which is an issue that could finally improve turnout among millennial voters- and has pumped millions into federal education programs, notably his "Race to the Top" initiative. This plan is controversial because it seemingly champions the creation of charter schools and mandates teacher evaluations. Romney and the Republicans believe in the drastic downsizing of the Federal Department of Education, and turning over most of the control to state and local governments who are better equipped to handle the individual needs of students. These ideologically varied perspectives on the future of the American education system will play a factor in the decision making process for parents and recent graduates alike.
It will come down to a suburban slugfest: …and both candidates know it. In all likelihood, the writing is already on the wall as to how most states are going to vote given past historical outcomes. As a result, voters in suburban Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida will most likely decide the race. You can expect a massive “Get out the Vote” operation in all three states, whose populations, and thusly, electoral girth, may prove to be the deciding factor in what may go down in history as one of the most hotly contested and socioeconomically transcendent elections in recent American history.
