Indictments could lead to the top of Libya’s leadership, particularly Colonel Gaddafi. Orders to attack and kill civilians are evidenced to have come from the highest levels of Libya’s current regime. As importantly, they continue. ICC (international Criminal Court) Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo says there is reason to believe at least 500-700 Libyan protesters were killed in February, and more since. The ICC Prosecutor is in the process of providing the UN Security Council with a report pursuant to Resolution 1970 adopted February 26, 2011. The update was requested by the UN Security Council in Resolution 1970 which referred the situation in Libya to the ICC for investigation and potential prosecution. ICC AUTHORITY INDEPENDENT ALTHOUGH REFERRED in LIBYA CASE by UN SECURITY COUNCIL: Nonetheless, the work of the ICC is presumed to be independent of the UN Security Council. The ICC is an independent treaty body, a permanent court established through the Rome Statute, (rather than an ad-hoc tribunal such as ICTY – International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia - whose mandate has been defined and now will be terminated by action of the Council). The Council could seek to defer ICC jurisdiction but under international law amnesty/immunity cannot be secured. "BASSIOUNI PANEL" The investigation of the ICC is also independent of the Human Rights Council’s “Bassiouni Panel” now investigating on its own mandate the human rights situation in Libya. (See our Report: “Libya Inquiry Commission” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/libya-inquiry-commission/26328 . The ICC may take into consideration the evidence gathered by the “Bassiouni Panel” or vice versa, but each has an independent mandate and foundation of international legal legitimacy. HOW BROAD ICC INVESTIGATION & LIMITED by UN SECURITY COUNCIL? The ICC Prosecutor has signaled as well that it may be investigation killings of “African migrants” presumed to be “mercenaries” by rebels in the key opposition city of Benghazi. The “Bassiouni Panel” has also indicated that it would investigate all potential violations of international humanitarian law regardless of who is victim and who is alleged perpetrator. This presumably could include outside parties, even NATO in theory. The ICC though has been limited by the “referral” in UN Security Council Resolution 1970 to prosecution of Libyan factors. However, I’m not convinced that the ICC is either legally obliged or would feel itself absolutely bound by this limitation under international law. As a practical matter, the ICC is not likely though to want to enter into such a dispute with the UN Security Council and some of its Permanent Members, as France and the United Kingdom, who are also critical State Parties to the ICC. PRECEDENT OF SREBRENICA "GENOCIDE" & RATKO MLADIC - RADOVAN KARADZIC It is not clear when an indictment might be forthcoming. In the case of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, the ICTY may provide some precedent. The evidence of “genocide” and “grave violations of international humanitarian law” was overwhelming and credible. More to the point, as the conflict was still ongoing in Bosnia & Herzegovina at that time as it is now in Libya, the Prosecutor may opt to act quickly for various motives, to deter future crimes while also making any conversation of immunity for Gaddafi untenable, IS AMNESTY DEAL POSSIBLE? During the negotiations in Dayton, there was an effort to get the Bosnian Government to offer a broad amnesty. Personally I felt that resistance to such push for amnesty was enhanced by the formal indictments handed down against Mladic and Karadzic just before Dayton. No doubt ICC Prosecutor Ocampo has heard proposals of potential amnesty deals with Gaddafi and associates. Whether such “deals” would be good for Libya and its people is highly debatable. The US, UK, France and allies has not indicated an inclination for such a deal. However, expediency is never in short supply in the big capitals. IMPUNITY: JUSTICE VERSUS PEACE-A FALSE CHOICE? Such a deal for the ICC though would run completely contrary to its purpose: to deter future grave violations of international humanitarian law, as well as deliver justice with respect to current crimes, and to confront impunity. Negotiators have been known to make deals in the name of securing peace – see non-arrest of Karadzic and Mladic. I have felt though that the choice between justice and peace has always been a false one, (and presented to us as a matter of expediency serving personal images/ambitions as much as any presumed big state strategic interests). Such deals have proven to be both functionally and legally dubious. Peace generally has suffered rather than be strengthened in the forum and on a global basis. My projection: expect indictments regarding Libya within weeks/months and not years. Now that ICC Prosecutor Ocampo has the steering wheel in his grasp, he will not surrender it to the swerving tendencies of political whims. And, Mr. Ocampo’s term is coming to conclusion, effectively with a year. Related Reports including: ---“Libya Investigation/International Criminal Court” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/international-criminal-courtlibya-referral-un-security-council/25302 ---“International Criminal Court Game Changer” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/international-criminal-courtgame-changer/25194 ---“Libya UN Security Council Debate” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/libyasanctions-un-security-council-debate/25097 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter - DiplomaticallyX