Is Facebook Another Dot-Com Bubble? by Ambassador mo
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For a rapidly growing enterprise that has an evolving business model in a dynamic industry, going public can frequently carry negative implications. Facebook is a venture that frequently adjusts its product stealthily, and is still evolving its model for monetizing the billions of users it expects within the next couple of years. For a business and company less than a decade old, that is not at all unusual. Many enterprises that old/young are still in nursery and dependent on their startup funding and perhaps newly established banking relationships. There might even be a small SBA (Small Business Administration) loan in the mix. IPO (initial public offering) is a hope only in telescope sight. Facebook – from Conceptual Seed to Virtual Galaxy. Facebook is now viewed with valuation in excess of $100 billion dollars already. Such valuation has geometrically grown during a period of economic turmoil and the most significant downturn in almost a century – only a year earlier the projected IPO value was more like $50 billion. The model for growth and establishing a niche business into a multi-billion dollar enterprise that did not even have a conceptual seed though has become the technology storyline – although some might argue fairytale. More like Doomed Dinosaurs than Stars of Previous Age: A decade earlier, Dot-coms mushroomed the forest floor of American business giants. They competed for IPO funding, became as dominant as beer commercials on American television and took on top billing at some of the most iconic cultural and sports’ stadium/facilities. Within a year or so many were Dot.com imploding bust and stardust. Revenues to Support an Ambitious Vision of the Future: During the last evolution cycle, there was not so much a meteor that ignited the big extinction as the fact that the Dot-coms had not yet become self-sustainable – many were kind of like large dinosaurs stepping on old line businesses all around them and still wearing diapers. The new evolutionary cycle has brought about many smaller, more nimble creatures who can survive during good and bad times and tend to work relatively well with or even improve the prospects for longer standing more traditional enterprises. Most critically, the new technology ventures are self-supporting. They may spend a lot of money or not, but the revenues already support an ambitious vision of the future. Film Annex, as example, was launched not more than 5 years earlier but can already show a record of profitability with a business model as well as audience/affiliations that continues to grow rapidly. Francesco Rulli, the entrepreneur who launched Film Annex, has not though sought VC (venture capital) funding or even bank loans. Film Annex has adopted an organic strategy for growth and flexibility in adjusting costs as well as the model. From Web Big Bang to the Star Wars Lounge: The web’s creation, a virtual Big Bang, followed by the galaxies of Apple’s, Googles, HPs, Microsofts have actually helped define a whole new virtual universe that is still by and large a lot of empty space. For you amateur physicists out there, we now know that the universe continues to expand at an accelerating rate, faster than light itself and beyond our capacity to actually observe it. Film Annex and perhaps even Facebook or LinkedIn or other many similar new ventures are filling that space and ever developing need. Running into competition is a risk, but it is perhaps more critical of finding the collaborators – ironically that may be the individuals as well as other enterprises that are part of your audience – another Film Annex lesson in niche recognition. Facebook’s IPO is much now a matter of compulsion under US regulatory laws (more than 500 “private investors” and in excess of $10 million in assets). I get the feeling that Mark Zuckerberg would rather still stay private except for the thousands of employees and early investors that are now eager for realizing the payout. Read the compelling piece by Colleen Taylor at Gigaom.com – “Facebook IPO: It’s a matter of when, not if.” - gigaom.com/2011/11/28/facebook-bankers-ipo/ Whether the Star Wars’ Band or Solo Performer: Sticking to a Star Wars analogy, an IPO is also like a gamma burst of exposure. Most of the rest of the universe will continue to develop in relative obscurity. Some will orbit the big enterprises, developing applications for Apple or Google. Some behemoths will take on the character of evil empires. Many of the explorers though will set out to find a niche in some remote corner of the virtual universe or perhaps to find a place to create their own buzz as part of a Star Wars Band. Where there is an opportunity, a life form will evolve. It’s an exciting world – universe that is out there, and if you’re reading this than you must be already a part of it. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook – Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow us at DiplomaticallyX Related Reports at “International Financial Crisis Channel” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/international-financial-crisis