At a highly dynamic time in the region, what used to be a stable Israeli-Turkish relationship is no longer that! The Gaza flotilla incident from May 2010 appears as the tip of this iceberg. Turkey Boots Israeli Ambassador: The latest point for divergence: a new UN report officially released regarding responsibility for that event, including killing of 9 “peace activists” (Turkish nationals and one American), has sparked the latest row. The UN report states that Israeli did have a right to enforce a blockade (Turkey disagrees), but that Israel employed excessive force (Israel disagrees). Turkey has continued to insist upon an Israeli apology. Israel refuses. Turkey has now booted the Israeli Ambassador from Ankara as well as having ended military cooperation (particularly air force training bases crucial for Israel). Reshaping the Political Terrain – Reasserting Ottoman Sphere? Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is now traveling to Egypt, one of first Head of State visits since overthrow of Mubarek. The Egyptian military council now presumably caretaking until elections bring in a new civilian government has been handling its own growing discontent focused on Israel. Perhaps in old days, Arab regimes would opt to steer discontent on Israel and divert attention from their own autocratic and economic records. Egypt though had to fend off a mob attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo a few days earlier, which could have caused both an embarrassment for new Egypt and caused a serious rapture. For reasons of its regional stability and links with Washington, the new Egyptian authorities want the peace to remain intact with Israel. However, the status quo is untenable and the new Egypt is consumed with internal considerations and unable to commit its reputation and attention on something that has failed so many other times – a new broader Middle East peace initiative, Step in Turkey and Erdogan. The Ottoman’s reigned over much of the area one time or another prior to WWI. Erdogan’s Turkey is also projected as model as to how Islam and democracy not only co-exist but advance. A couple of years earlier, Turkey had tried to advance Israeli-Syria peace talks, until the Assad regime in Syria went beyond political salvation. Read: diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/syria-turkey-arab-league-pressure-by-ambassador-mo/34865 ). Capturing the Moment for Change: After initially missing the anti-Gaddafi trend in Libya and having recognized the lost case that the current regime in Syria is, Erdogan and his government are seeking new pillars for its foreign policy. Egypt, post Mubarek, is an opportunity and risk even as the course of reform is uncertain. Committing humanitarian and political resources, Erdogan has already ventured to the current alarm bell that Somalia is. (See PHOTO & ARTICLE: diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/turkeys-activism-around-the-globe-picture-tells-the-story/34536 ). Rather than shy away from the intractable, Turkey also seems to see the Israeli-Palestinian issue as part of its strategy of reasserting influence in former Ottoman Empire lands. Pretext of Neutrality: The US pretext of neutrality in the Israeli/Palestinian stand-off has been effectively waived for some years now. Turkey now also sees more gain in setting aside a similar pretext of neutrality and playing to an Arab and Muslim audience. This is less ideological or theological as it is political or perhaps even economic. The vast Arab Middle East is without a champion and also a quickly growing market. The Soviets, British and American have all waived their influence in the region for one reason or another. Turkey is ready to step in as the new political champion and economic driver. Best Defense Against Change is Change: Perhaps Israel does not recognize the shifting sands uncovering new interests even as making obsolete old alignments. The current Israeli government has probably too much confidence, (the Arabs would argue arrogance), in its ability to withstand the change. However, it must recognize that the best defense against change is change. It has to choose between more land or more peace, and probably sooner rather than later in pressing ahead with the “two-state solution.” Maybe change can even be an opportunity. Erdogan’s Turkey for good or bad, is proving adept to the current Arab storm. Israel is becoming embroiled in one that marginalizes its importance even as it becomes engulfed by the winds. Related ARTICLE - “Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation Diplomacy” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/turkish-israeli-reconciliation-diplomacy-by-ambassador-mo/30929 

 Related ARTICLE - “What Next on Syria – Civil War Already but Insurgency?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/what-next-on-syria-it-is-civil-war-already-but-insurgency-by-ambassador-mo/33413


 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey







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