Italy may be even more important in its recognition of the Opposition, as former colonial ruler but also residence for funds (direct investments and bank accounts?)of the Tripoli Government and Gaddafi family personally during the last couple of decades under Colonel Gaddafi’s rule. There are a few perhaps unusual elements to what some may otherwise see as a premature recognition. First France and now Italy are important as the first 2 states to recognize the alternative to Colonel Gaddafi in Libya. It is also relatively unusual for a rebel or Opposition movement to be recognized as the legitimate government before it even has control of the capital, the institutions and levers of government power. One concern of premature recognition is that the guys you are embracing today as legitimate may not be around tomorrow. Others may still be concerned as to who the Opposition is or what could they morph into. More cynically or suspiciously, take your choice, recognition has symbolic considerations, perhaps more in its opposition to Gaddafi than the embrace of the Opposition. However, the step of recognizing the Opposition - Libyan National Transitional Council - has several tangible consequences for now or the immediate future: • The Opposition most importantly can now pursue legal channels to access the funds and other assets of the Libyan Government and even Gaddafi family/loyalists, first within the recognizing states but also in others more receptive. • Such financial resources may be important in funding government operations and consolidating authority of the Opposition – the Libyan National Transitional Council – in areas under its control. Bureaucracy and providing basic services such as health, education and food may be as important as guns in winning and maintaining loyalty of the population. • Of course, it may also get down to guns, and the Opposition is now still badly outgunned. However can they legitimately purchase/access weapons in view of Resolution 1970 that imposes an arms embargo? • The recognition DOES NOT alter membership in such international institutions such as the United Nations or certainly not the African Union, for now. Being recognized as the legitimate Government at the UN requires a more formal process, (which is nonetheless much simpler and less transparent than admission of a new state – new states to be admitted requires both UN Security and UN General Assembly action as was the case with Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia & Herzegovina in 1992). In order for the Libyan Opposition to be recognized at the UN, there would need to be more recognitions by others states and initiative by the UN Secretary General – it is more an either or balancing act perhaps best analogized by the “teeter-totter.” New Recognitions to Come? Why have not states as the United Kingdom and the United States recognized the Transitional Government? Perhaps they are still vetting the composition of the Opposition. The “defection” of Gaddafi’s former Foreign Minister and Intelligence Chief Musa Kusa may be as important in informing London, Washington and others regarding the Opposition as it reveals about Gaddafi and company. Regardless, such recognition may be especially relevant on the issue of military assistance and the UN arms embargo. Arms Embargo on Libyan National Transitional Council? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has already publicly raised the view that the UN arms embargo does not apply to the Opposition. The legal validity of such argument is only marginally relevant. What is important is what the capitals of those states that are willing to provide military supplies say – as was the case in the former Yugoslavia. As in the former Yugoslavia, where Slobodan Milosevic’s army and Belgrade effectively benefitted from the arms embargo by being able to codify the status quo and their military weapons superiority. Such weapons disparity combined with the UN arms embargo certainly will not have the effect of suffocating the war. Rather it may encourage despots as Gaddafi and Milosevic (Mladic) to press ahead with a military option and plant the killing fields with the bodies of as many perceived opponents, civilian and fighters. In future Report/Blog we will look at the critical role of Qatar in its many roles including “Contact Group on Libya” as well as the UN Security Council’s Sanctions Committee. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – DiplomaticallyX See/Read more Related Reports at: diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_posts ---“(Bernard Henri Levy) Man Who Prompted President Sarkozy & France to Act” diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/man-who-prompted-president-sarkozy-france-to-act-in-libya-by-ambassador-mo/26948 ---“President Obama Comparing Bosnia to Libya” diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/president-obama-comparing-libya-to-bosnia-what-lessons-by-ambassador-mo/26578