Sources inform me that most members of UN Security Council are inclined to heed warning that Gaddafi may be perpetrating genocide and other grave violations of international humanitarian law against his own people. The UN Security Council may meet very soon and informal consultations/discussions are already underway. The highly unusual step of Libya’s Deputy UN Ambassador and the Ambassador to the United States calling for international intervention have opened the door. Further, these diplomats have enhanced our picture of what is happening in the country (where free media, from outside or within, is not allowed to operate). However, now that the door may be open for international action, will in fact such opportunity be welcome in most western capitals? These senior Libyan diplomats accusing their longtime boss and strong man, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, of such international crimes might be initially viewed as a step that Washington and its allies might welcome (in view of the broad animosity toward this regime). However, it pushes such western leaders to have to make some tough choices, when otherwise they may have been able to stand back on the basis of “deniable plausibility” that Libya’s struggle was not an international matter but purely domestic. Of course, there are valid and self-serving reasons for western powers not to intervene with more than carefully angled words. Risks of Action: Oil Cut-off and More One has to also consider that even western verbal intervention could incite Gaddafi and cronies to threaten a cut off of petroleum. Further, direct intervention could generate a counter response that would entrench Gaddafi or bring about unpredictable consequences and opportunists to the forefront. And, despite the low esteem in which Gaddafi has been held; nonetheless it cannot be ignored that over the last decade a cozy symbiosis has come to evolve between his regime and western business interests and their governments. (BP is only one example of such). The killing could get too be so bad though that more robust action would have to be considered. The genocide in Bosnia & Herzegovina is one precedent that should be avoided. However, if seeking precedents with an almost exclusively domestic theme, the genocide of Columbia and current events in the Ivory Coast could provide legal/diplomatic guidance for the Security Council when to inject its authority and what to do and what to do in a timely basis. Of course, Russia and especially China may be reluctant for direct and implicit reasons linked to their rather rigid positions on sovereignty. Compelling Foundation for Intervention Most notably though, the actions of Libya’s own diplomats provide the foundation. The rapidly denigrating situation is increasingly likely to pose a “threat to international peace and security, “ the key phrase under the UN Charter opening the door for UN Security Council action. Further, as the senior diplomat of a member state before the United Nations is presumed to carry the word of his state at the institution, the call for action by Libya’s diplomats is not only unprecedented but also compelling. At the time of authoring this article, there have been many reports, still difficult to fully confirm, of Gaddafi turning his army and air force against his own people. There have been even reports of Gaddafi bringing in mercenaries. Perhaps the best outcome would be if Gaddafi fled, as some speculate, for sanctuary with his pal Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Risks of Inaction – Role of International Criminal Court, UN Human Rights Commissioner, UN Secretary General & Security Council? If Gaddafi does not leave soon, it is likely to get bloodier, painful for the people. The risks would continue to rise for western states as well, and it is not only about oil. However, the risks are also for Gaddafi of stepping out too late. The International Criminal Court could be asked and presumably review events for violation of international humanitarian law. The UN Human Rights Commissioner has already been vocal and active with respect to preceding events in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt. Further, this Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, has already shown himself ahead of the curve. (warcrimesjustice.com/films/movie/ahead-of-curvearab-world-reform/24771). The noose is tightening, at least in a literal sense for now. Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Please see other film reports & previous articles at “War Crimes Justice” - www.warcrimesjustice.com Washington's Egypt Diplomacy-Creep Behind or Hurdle Ahead in Trying To Shape Change, by Ambassador mo Egypt-Free Media: warcrimesjustice.com/films/movie/egypt-free-media-social-media/24434 Egypt-UN Human Rights Commissioner: warcrimesjustice.com/films/movie/egypt-un-on-human-rights/24370 Tunisia Revolution: warcrimesjustice.com/films/movie/tunisia-democracyjasmen-freedom/24460