While some may presume that the key question is will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution, the real issue is who is willing to assume the task of enforcing and how timely. A UN Security Council resolution may not be necessary, as the League of Arab States, the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) all appear eager to endorse a no-fly zone. Regional organizations may undertake such necessary steps to also address threats to regional peace and security. UN Security Council “Debate” Camouflaging Lack of Enthusiasm in Western Capitals The current debate within the UN Security Council between the “big powers” over a no-fly zone may be a convenient camouflage for the disagreement between the major western democracies and even within their capitals. In Washington, the Pentagon is wholly unenthusiastic in endorsing a no-fly zone over Libya and particularly in accepting the responsibility, with or without the rest of NATO. The Pentagon has good reasons for caution in view of immediate risks and the stretching of US military assets in too many arenas. However, US military and political officials should remember the lesson of not having finished Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf War only to enter into a second more expensive war in Iraq and with much less support from Iraq’s neighbors and NATO partners. Perhaps not Adequately Motivated by Suffering of Libyans; However, Consequences of Indecision More Broadly Felt Timing may not appear right for the US military now but more likely than not, neither the opportunity nor global will is likely to get any more favorable. The current humanitarian crisis and standing of Libya’s rebel held areas may not be motivation enough for US and NATO military leaders. The implications for Libya’s freedom and people may be dire if no action, but the consequences are much broader and beyond Libya. Undoubtedly, if Gaddafi survives this revolution, he will not quietly retreat to his Tripoli palaces. Further, Libyan oil is not likely to flow as long as he remains in power. Sanctions and lack of foreign workers make it hard to see how Libya could effectively resume its significant role as petroleum producer, of course and unless, Chinese, Russian or Venezuelan (Chavez) human and technical assets are deployed. - Hide quoted text - Gaddafi has no way to return to something even remotely resembling good standing with Libya’s neighbors or the international community (particularly the western democracies.) Some might call upon Gaddafi’s previous rehabilitation as an option again, but that is neither desirable nor probable, especially in view of the “investigation” for grave violations of international humanitarian law by the International Criminal Court that is destined to track Gaddafi and his family indefinitely. Now is Time to Invest in Arab Change As importantly, with a new Arab awakening, the western democracies cannot afford to be duplicitous. The US and allies must be resolute in projecting support and shared responsibility to nurture a progressive vision of free and open societies in states as Tunisia and Egypt while providing old allies as the Gulf Arab monarchies an opportunity to adjust and hopefully change to the new mindset. Abdicating the opportunity to shape change when most opportune ideologically and in terms of human rights and lives in Libya now, in the future could bring the western allies to be naked in an agenda based upon protecting oil or some other more selfish interest. Timing is not only about military assets available but also popular and political support that can more likely ride momentum to a quicker and more resolute conclusion. Libya Quagmire? & Bosnia Lessons Undoubtedly, the risk of a Libyan quagmire is not totally to be dismissed. However, speaking of Libya in the same terms as Iraq or Afghanistan is not analytically honest. The example of Bosnia & Herzegovina is probably a better parallel. Air power applied resolutely by NATO in Bosnia brought about a conclusion to war, and with no NATO planes shot down despite Serbian anti-aircraft systems that are more than not in relative terms comparable to Gaddafi’s. (Ironically, Gaddafi remained an ally of Slobodan Milosevic, and Serbian military instructors and mercenaries have continued to be employed by his regime in Libya). Unfortunately, western allies wasted more than 3 ½ years and many Bosnian lives before acting. Various pretexts for inaction were put forward, but right or wrong, such were seen as leaving perhaps deliberately a European Muslim population exposed to ethnic cleansing/genocide. The end result: the war ended, but cynicism and virulent ultra nationalism prevail in politics. Values of open and democratic societies that could have been further shared came to be perceived by many as mere rhetoric or even tools for opportunism. Bosnia offers several tactical lessons as well. Bosnian Government forces were able to rapidly erase Serbia’s weaponry advantage once NATO air power was applied. As was the case in Bosnia, there is a capable and motivated force to take advantage on the ground and to reverse Gaddafi’s recent gains (mostly achieved as result of Gaddafi’s unchallenged air power.) In Libya, neighboring states are even more enthusiastic of getting rid of Gaddafi. (In Bosnia, the conclusion of war was inconclusive because the Bosnian Government forces themselves were stopped from continuing their advance to victory by the same western officials who continued to favor Milosevic as a pillar of stability – until he again proved them wrong in his assault upon Kosovo - a mistake in judgment not likely to be repeated with respect to Gaddafi) Some US and NATO military officials claim that a no-fly zone requires significantly broader military intervention, such as neutralizing/destroying anti-aircraft systems. That is not necessarily accurate, although that possibility cannot be set aside. A no-fly zone can be imposed even if not absolutely enforced. Once one of Gaddafi’s aircraft opts to violate, then NATO and allied forces could choose the target, timing and opportunity to respond. Thus, the no-fly zone may be at least partially effective merely as a threat that Libyan pilots are not likely to want to challenge. Under current circumstances, Libyan pilots have only Gaddafi’s retribution to fear if they do not follow his orders. (The no-fly zone over Bosnia was not comprehensively enforced, and the Bosnian Government frequently was dismayed by the spotty application. Nonetheless, the no-fly zone did play a positive role tactically and particularly strategically). With Political/Popular Support also Asking for Military Cooperation We should be clear from the outset though that a no-fly zone may not be enough to bring the Libyan war to conclusion. (That is also why the Bosnian example and lessons especially regarding the end game may be of value.) There is no going back though, and the only way forward for Libya and the international community is to take steps that will get Gaddafi out. US, NATO and allies should take advantage of the Arab League, OIC and GCC current commitment to insure their participation in any military as well as political action. Egypt and Tunisia as neighbors can provide bases and logistics. Aircraft and personnel can come from a broader membership of the above organizations for anything from enforcement to rescue operations to punitive measures. Turkey, as both NATO and OIC member, is only one of over a dozen states that has capacity to play a leading role. The question really is not if, but rather when and how. The US, NATO and regional allies (Arab League, OIC, GCC) are probably in the best situation now to select the most advantageous options in terms of political and popular support, strategic considerations as well as military methods to gradually tighten the squeeze until Gaddafi pops out. For the first time, US and allies have opportunity to enter a conflict in the Middle East perceived as backing an indigenous Arab revolution rather than suppressing popular aspirations. US officials should also be reminded of how America fighting a revolutionary war against imperial Britain also sought French intervention despite a bloody conflict with France itself only a decade or so earlier during the “French-Indian War.” (George Washington gained his military experience and reputation fighting French.) While evaluating options it is appropriate to be reminded that inertia may be comfortable but the cost of no action is real and will continue to rise, for the Libyan people, the region, and western democracies and broader international community. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey www.diplomaticallyincorrect.org Facebook at "Diplomatically Incorrect" Twitter follow DiplomaticallyX More related Reports: UN Security Council Arms Raised, Thumbs Down on Gaddafi, by Ambassador mo - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/un-security-council-arms-raised-thumbs-down-on-gaddafi-by-ambassador-mo/25027 Arab Revolutions How Far? By Ambassador mo - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/arab-revolutions-how-far-by-ambassador-mo/25222 UN Security Council Still Debates Libya's Fate, Gaddafi's Hold (and Perhaps its own Future Role?), by Ambassador mo - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/un-security-council-still-debates-libyas-fate-gaddafis-hold-and-perhaps-its-own-future-role-by-ambassador-mo/25022