What did President Obama actually say in his Middle East policy statement? Speaking for around 50 minutes, the speech was again a Barack performance: masterful delivery and full of historical reflections and symbolism but vision to the future limited by caution. Nonetheless, there was some significant news, and not necessarily to be universally acclaimed. Almost two years since his “historic” speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, the Arab World has moved well beyond his expectations. Some might contend that change in the Arab World has moved in spite of the United States Government rather than because of it. The greatest American contributions to change have been Face Book, Twitter and You Tube? That may not be a bad thing, that the US does not have finger prints, (perhaps beyond Libya), on Arab revolutions. Obama at least was instrumental in moving the US faster out of the way while some other US officials urged the status quo. However, the expectations were much higher, internationally, in the Arab World and maybe even among supporters in the US. Obama speaks well, but carries a cane when it comes to vision – (as compared to former US President Teddy Roosevelt who welcomed the previous “American century” with the statement: “speak softly and carry a big stick”). OK, so we had some fun. What though in substance can we juice out of President Obama’s grapefruit of a speech? New Economic Aid/Facilities - EBRD: Turning the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) toward investment in the Middle East and North Africa could be key both for economic and political considerations. The EBRD has resources and has been willing to provide support for projects/enterprises that may go beyond traditional development, infrastructure projects. Also, the EBRD by its charter can only provide funding in countries that have embraced democracy. The EBRD could now serve as both a political culture link and more direct economic link to the Euro-Atlantic family (US is member of EBRD, but Obama’s proposal is still just that, to be adopted by future EBRD Board action presumably.) US Comes Out Against Palestinian Membership at UN Without Israel OK It was carefully couched, but it appears that Obama Administration will look to effectively block Palestinian state admission to UN, until Israel says OK. Obama clothed this opposition in two phrases: calling for Palestinian membership only once there is agreement on the new Palestinian State's “permanent” borders, and rejecting efforts at action to symbolically isolate Israel at the United Nations. However, the current progress in the Israeli/Palestinian process is not only stalled, but Israel’s current leadership appears convinced that time may play favorably to establish new realities on the ground even as it may be more dangerous to long term Israeli and US efforts to secure a sustainable peace. President Obama’s failure to express appreciation for recently resigned US Mid-East mediator George Mitchell’s efforts or even to mention the statesman (Mitchell was in audience) was stark on a personal level and telling on future policy options favoring caution. The lack of any progress to move the process at the negotiating table and effectively blocking Palestinian admission to UN, leaves Israel in what the current Israeli government may perceive as both a political and military advantage. While President Obama's endorsement for the "pre-1967" borders "subjects to negotiations and territorial exchanges" as basis for two state solution and promptly rejected by Israeli PM Benjamin Netenyahu; nonetheless leaves Israel in the superior negotiating position, as again all is subject to Israel's OK. One can only imagine the range of responses that will come to this continuing disfranchisement as a state from the Palestinians and broader Arab World. In my opinion, vision is needed here to escape what is a status quo on the verge of a political earthquake that could have destructive implications in the region of seismic proportions. Linking Arab aspirations for Freedom to Values & Foundations of American System: This may be largely seen as symbolic at first glance. However, it does remove the US from seeking short term arrangements with strongman leaders and despots in the region to the more difficult but ultimately rewarding process of seeing Arabs as similarly entitled. This may be to some extent in contrast to US policy in some areas now, but it recognizes that Arab masses and not Arab leaders and “populism” may be future US partners in the region, a point perhaps more noticeable to some of us as it was made at the US State Department, a methodology that in its functional application frequently favors the status quo and dealing with that one leader who can readily make the deal (as opposed to the frequently messy interaction with multiple political representatives.) Upon further reflection perhaps many will come to see President Obama’s speech as something much more confined to a presentation of history and linked to preserving the current road. Some have characterized his presentation already as the “Educator-in-Chief” or “Lecturer-in-Chief”. It is also fair to say though that expectations this time around were much less, as compared to the US. The good news and bad news for Washington is that much of the Arab World is exhibiting the will and even some means to do it without America, except perhaps for Face Book and Twitter. Related Reports: ---"Interview-Palestinian Admission to UN" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/palestine-statehood-at-unamb-riyad-mansour-interview-p1/24296 ---"Palestine Returning into Focus" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/israelpalestine-returning-into-focus-in-arab-world-un-by-ambassador-mo/28059 ---"Israel/Palestine Divide-Shimon Peres at UN" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/israel-palestinian-divideshimon-peresun/26155 ---"EU-UN Joint Palestine Visit" - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/eu-un-joint-palestine-visit/27000 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter - DiplomaticallyX