When they want to add to the number and impact of terrorist attacks, terrorists start hitting soft targets. Attacks on hard or relatively secure targets require more time to plan and execute, and the chances of success remain low.

The recent spike in sectarian-related terrorist attacks in Pakistan reflects growing frustration among terrorists, apparently due to an intensifying military campaign and a consolidating political and social response against them.

Out of frustration, they keep going for soft targets, a trend that could continue in the coming weeks and months.

Also, these attacks indicate that it is not only the traditional sectarian militants who are engaged in sectarian violence in the country – many of the recently reported sectarian-related terrorist attacks were claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and its splinter groups.

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Over the past decade, sectarian violence in Pakistan has followed certain patterns of rise and fall.

The year 2014 had witnessed a visible downward turn in sectarian-related terrorist attacks, but that declining trend could not sustain for long.

The geographical flashpoints of sectarian violence have also kept shifting, with a few regions – such as Karachi and Quetta – becoming permanent hotspots of such violence. After 9/11, a major respite was observed in the attacks.

But after the military operations in Swat and South Waziristan in 2009-10, the violence saw an upward trend.

Critical considerations