Because media freedom still has not been established, efficacy of Arab League observer mission in Syria is still difficult to comprehensively ascertain. Members/Speaker of the Arab Parliament, an effective representative/advisory body to the Arab League Executive though is calling for withdrawal suggesting that the mission is not succeeding but actually providing cover for ongoing repression and violence against protesters, Three factors seem to immediately point to less than complete/successful mission: ---Killings by regime forces continue even though perhaps less than otherwise might have occurred. (An Arab League observer caught on camera – Photo Above - was particularly determined to confront the regime on its snipers even as some/most of heavy weapons were withdrawn). ---Without any real presence of independent media, the less than sufficient number of Arab League observers makes it difficult to have eyes and ears in all places necessary. The Syrian regime seems to be playing a bit of cat and mouse game - on better behavior where the Arab League observers are, but less when they are out of range. The 150 now envisioned seems not enough but probably should have been closer to the 500 originally incorporated into the Arab League plan. ---Situation in Syria appears no closer to resolution, and no signs regime is yielding any real reform/rights. Syrian opposition had hoped to see the Arab League efforts as first steps in wresting power from an authoritarian as well as brutal regime. On the other hand, the Syrian regime sees the Arab League observers as a gradual road back to regaining full control and legitimacy at the United Nations as well as in Arab capitals. My old colleague now Secretary General of Arab League Nabil Elaraby based upon reports from the ground believes that the regime has pulled out “heavy weapons” from most urban areas. However, he still cites snipers and shootings as ongoing concerns on basis of reports from his observers on the ground. From the outset it was evident that at least two very much opposing forces would pull upon the Arab League’s mission in Syria. Saving lives might necessitate accommodation but change will necessitate ongoing confrontation. This puts the Arab League in a very difficult position, and in end could make it as well as the people of Syria hostage to the regime. The real hurdle to a more assertive position by the Arab League is that within the UN Security Council some capitals are still obstacles to more substantive measures directed at the Syrian regime. It is evident now that Moscow’s introduction of a draft UN Security Council resolution some 20 days earlier was more about preempting such substantive measures and the Arab League rather than a willingness to follow through on sanctions on the Syrian regime. Without the real option of further measures before the UN Security Council, the Arab League shrinks in strength and risks becoming a pawn, a hostage in Syria. Nonetheless, there were few alternatives when the Arab League walked into Syria, but it may also need to know/threaten to walk out and leave the Syrian regime and its supporters exposed. Read: -“Syria Regime Abuses Void for Crackdown” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/syria-regime-abuses-void-for-crackdown-by-ambassador-mo/43086. Regardless though of the image projected by the Syrian regime now, it is worthy to remind that it has committed grave and widespread violations of international humanitarian law. Without accountability, not only will the rule of law have been betrayed in Syria and the Arab world, but it will be a clear message that might is right including murder of one’s own citizens. In the longer term, the role of the International Criminal Court may not be inevitable but it is critical to change, progress and peace in the country and region. If the end result of the Arab League observer mission is as mere witnesses in the context of holding leaders legally/judicially accountable, it is both a noble and significant step forward. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey


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