Suicide bomb exploded adjacent to government buildings of the Somali provisional government. Famine rages through most of countryside. Only a few months earlier the Mogadishu authorities and the African Union forces backing the government were claiming significant progress in advancing control over Mogadishu and the rest of the country. (SEE FILM REPORT from APRIL, 2011 “Somalia Getting Better?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/somalia-getting-better/27603 ) Certainly recent conferences bringing together rival regional leaders are an indication of perhaps reintegration. (READ – “Two Somali Regions Agree to Agree to End Conflict” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/somalia-transitional-government-puntland-toward-reconciliation-by-ambassador-mo/34859 No Winners in Somalia: The Al-Shabaab may be on the retreat, but that does not mean that anyone in Somalia is winning. The Al-Shabaab also showed that they can still strike anywhere with today’s suicide bombing, and they do not appear to be particularly deterred by either civilian casualties or the famine.(Most of those killed today were the hope for the future - students hoping for study scholarships. Two years earlier during a previous suicide bombing it was also students - medical - that were the largest number of murdered). The UN Security Council last week asked, more like demanded, that the African Union up its deployment force to the 10,000 or so authorized by Resolution. However, it is not clear how this might help in a country as big as the eastern United States, more diverse and open to entry by vast, empty stretches of sand and ocean. Worse Option - Ethiopian Invasion: Don’t get me wrong. I don’t have an answer. However, most objective observers, from CNN reporters to political analysts in Washington think-tanks do agree that the current course initiated by a US supported invasion of Ethiopian troops, (ostensibly to combat another "Islamist threat"), has made things significantly worse at least for the Somali population. Again, the alternatives may not have been much better, but probably the worst was applied. (READ – “Political Culpability for Famine” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/political-culpability-for-famine-by-ambassador-mo/34826 Perhaps the authoritarian regime in Ethiopia sees itself as winner. Somalia, Ethiopia’s traditional enemy is weakened, but more troubling – the reigning regime in Addis Ababa has been provided both free hand and screen for what many characterize as a policy of repression and ethnic cleansing in the Ogaden region. This certainly fits the definition of grave violations of international humanitarian law and perhaps genocide. What is Washington getting out of this? This is the statement made by US VP Joe Biden not too long ago in response to the activist community on Ogaden: "We understand that the United States has a valuable strategic relationship with the government of Ethiopia. However, we believe it is of fundamental importance to ensure that in our relationships with all government on the African continent and around the world, the United States demonstrate a steadfast commitment to human rights, good governance, and justice. We urge you to intensify pressure on the Ethiopian government to respect fundamental human rights norms even as it purses critical security objectives. We expect that you will keep us appraised of new information regarding the Ethiopian military's operations and conduct in the Ogaden and how the United States is responding." However, Washington has done little to change course (or alter Ethiopian regime's actions in Ogaden). More accurately, there is no course, that is unless meandering is the goal. Washington’s foreign policy establishment trends toward a process, almost any process when it does not have a solution. (See Israel and Palestine or the Balkans). However, there is not so much a process but a diversion that some believe perhaps keeps the “radical Islamists” in Somalia preoccupied with an internal conflict. That is, however, the very repeat of Afghanistan that the US hoped to avoid - suffering and vacuum that brought the Taliban and Al-Qaeda to Afghanistan 15-20 years earlier. As we began, there are no winners within Somalia now. Time will tell who else will be the losers. (See FILM REPORT – MARCH 2011 – “War Without End-Somalia” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/war-without-end-somalia/26982 ) PHOTOS Above: From UN Files – Spanning Two decades of Misery and Losing in Somalia! By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook – Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow us at DiplomaticallyX More at “WAR CRIMES JUSTICE” Channel - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice