“Most serious violations of the Peace Agreement” since signing. Do they really get the urgency of High Representative Valentin Inzko’s (HR) letter to the UN Security Council? (See Letter Report diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/show-down-in-un-security-council-republika-srpska-threat-to-international-peace-security-by-ambassador-mo/27785 ).-Most European capitals and Washington have way underestimated the challenge that the long standing leadership of Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska poses to Bosnia & Herzegovina’s future as well as the authority of the High Representative representing those capitals and also acting under Chapter 7 mandate of the UN Security Council. (At Bottom of this article is EU and associated states statement before tomorrow's UN Security Council session).

The response that the HR is seeking from the Council is clear and unequivocal. Those responsible for such grave violations of the Peace Agreement are clearly identified in the HR’s letter to the Council with a long list of offenses. The HR also defines Mr. Dodik’s actions as effectively a “threat to international peace and security,” a challenge to the UN and particularly UN Security Council and its most powerful members. The HR is seeking from the Council a clear warning to Mr. Dodik with potential consequences, (including personal and perhaps with threat of sanctions).

Dodik Keeps Fooling & Bluffing Them
Mr. Dodik, having at one time been praised as the new face of a cooperative Republika Srpska, has duped European capitals and Washington now on repeated occasions. Part of it is that he was counting on neglect and time to wear down interest in Bosnia. However, the bluff must be called and firmly, or Mr. Dodik, who frankly does not have a very good hand otherwise, will win this hand and the whole game.

The problem for those Bosnians & Herzegovinians who were counting on the “international community” to preserve what they defended with blood 16 years earlier is that their confidence was misplaced. The Office of the High Representative only reflects what the perceived relative strengths are on the ground and the willingness of the international community is actually willing to commit or do. Mr. Dodik has posed and bluffed well. The High Representatives’ Office, (largely through little fault of Mr. Inzko himself), has been exploited by Mr. Dodik to provide a false sense of confidence and cover.

Burying HR Inzko & Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Now, that HR Inzko has tried to raise the red warning sign, it appears most are colorblind and unable or unwilling to read the message. Mr. Dodik has signaled his intention to kill Bosnia & Herzegovina. Mr. Inzko has also exposed that plan with clear words. The HR is the eyes and ears of European capitals, Washington as well as the UN Security Council. There is some feeling though that the “big powers” prefer to keep their “heads buried in the sand” not to see what is inconvenient for the moment. Does that though mean effectively burying HR Inzko and Bosnia & Herzegovina?

To be or not to be is now not only about Bosnia & Herzegovina but about the HR and the authority and role of the Peace Implementation Council and the UN Security Council. Otherwise, the citizens of Bosnia & Herzegovina will be faced with the unfortunate dilemma of taking defense of the country into their own hands to keep Mr. Dodik from completing what Milosevic, Mladic and Karadzic started. It’s a startling and unpleasant option, but I have little doubt that there could be renewed conflict in Bosnia & Herzegovina and perhaps beyond its borders. These are HR Inzko’s warnings and not just my own, but I’m not sure that some/many want to see or hear what Mr. Inzko’s sees and fears. We will see the results of HR Inzko’s appeal to the Council and the “big capitals.” Some may prefer though to bury Mr. Inzko’s head rather than allow him to see objectively. Burying Bosnia & Herzegovina though is a different matter.

Below is Copy of European Union’s Statement before the UN Security Council in anticipation of the Debate on May 9, 2011.

By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey
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Mr President,
I have the honour to speak on behalf of the European Union.

I would like to join other speakers in welcoming High Representative and European Union. Special Representative Valentin Inzko back to the Council and to reiterate the EU's full support for his office and his work. [greetings to BiH briefer, most likely the PR of BiH]

Mr. President,

The European Union shares the concern of the High Representative about the current political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More than seven months after the elections of October 2010, we are still waiting for the formation of a government at the state level. In addition, we have since seen a further deterioration of the political climate and little progress in key reform areas. It is crucial that a state-level government be formed without further delay, that it re-start the reform process and put the country on the road towards EU integration. The EU encourages the Security Council to send a message of strong concern, urging all political actors to find common solutions within the framework of the General Framework Agreement for Peace.

In this context we deem the recent decision by the Republika Srpska to hold a referendum challenging the authority of state judicial institutions within that entity and rejecting the authority of the High Representative a step into the wrong direction. In recent meetings between EU officials and political representatives of the Republika Srpska we have made clear our strong concerns and our expectation that the referendum will not be held. While concerns related to the functioning of state institutions may be legitimate, they but must be expressed through appropriate mechanisms; it is clear that only mutually agreed reforms would be acceptable. The EU regularly encourages BiH political representatives to act with a greater spirit of compromise, to step up consultations and to work for the long-term interests of the country. The EU has now called on BiH political leaders to engage in a constructive, structured political dialogue on legal issues and the judiciary. We also stand fully behind the authority of the High Representative. Moreover, we underline once more our firm commitment to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of BiH and urge all to refrain from divisive rhetoric and actions that harm the interests of the citizens.


It is the prime responsibility of BiH political leaders to achieve concrete and tangible progress, including on the road towards EU integration, on the "5 objectives and 2 conditions" for OHR closure and on constitutional reform. The EU believes that, as a matter of priority, Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to bring its Constitution into compliance with the European Convention of Human Rights. Fulfilment of the obligations under the Interim/Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU would demonstrate the commitment to the EU integration process, be a key element for a credible membership application and avoid that BiH falls further behind the region on its way towards EU accession.

The EU is in the process of further strengthening its engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina as to support its progress towards EU accession through a comprehensive approach and significant financial assistance and expertise. It will soon enhance its political presence through a reinforced, single EU representative. In addition, the EU maintains two crisis management missions on the ground - EUPM and EUFOR Althea, which, as our Foreign Ministers reaffirmed in March this year, are important elements of the EU's overall strategy for BiH. Operation Althea supports BiH efforts to maintain a safe and secure environment and provides training to the BiH Armed Forces while the Police Mission's activities center on thesupport to the fight against organised crime and corruption.

The recent high-level visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina by the President of the European Commission Barroso underlined our unequivocal commitment to BiH's European perspective and the EU's preparedness to assume the leading role in that regard. Fifteen years after the signature of the Dayton-Paris Peace Agreements, BiH's citizens deserve a qualitative step forward of their country on the path towards European integration. As the successful visa liberalization shows, when there is political will and readiness to reach compromise, Bosnia and Herzegovina is able to carry out reforms and to deliver on commitments. With this in mind, and on Europe Day 2011, we encourage and appeal to the political leaders to put Bosnia and Herzegovina firmly on the way towards the European Union.

Thank you Mr President.