The US and European allies have failed. Arab neighbors have gone silent in the face of obstinacy. Israel could only have a contrary impact. The Iranian regime is not inclined to temper Syria’s crackdown. The UN Human rights chief has once again reiterated the call for the Syrian regime to refrain from continuing its violations as well as demanding an investigation, but this is no more likely to be successful than various other efforts from the UN Secretary General to the Human Rights Council. Could Turkey have Greater Influence? Turkey and Syria share a long border. At one time Syria’s regime was suspected of quietly enabling Kurdish PPK rebels in their attacks upon Turkish military and political authority. However, more recently Ankara under a more regionally engaging Prime Minister Regep Erdogan has tried to broker talks between Israel and Syria. The Israeli’s were annoyed but had to engage because of not only Turkey’s pivotal regional role but also because Turkey provided air force and other military training facilities to Israel. Syria saw an opportunity in the engagement as part of a broader geo-political shift in its favor. Embarrassment to Turkey’s Reinvigorated Regional Role Now though Syrian refugees are fleeing across the border from Bashir Assad’s security forces in big numbers. Turkey is facing a potentially draining refugee problem and an embarrassment to its newly reinvigorated regional role taken away from it since the First World War a century earlier. Prime Minister Erdogan and Ankara had been pre-occupied until recently with pivotal Turkish elections. However, having gained a sizable election victory now Erdogan and Ankara’s Foreign Ministry can turn its attention to the trouble in Syria and its SE border. While Syria has tried to claim that these events were purely an internal Syrian matter, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry pointed out that the mere fact of thousands of refugees fleeing into Turkey no longer allowed such to be considered a purely Syrian internal matter. Turkey has publicly claimed to be tempering its public comments as not to embarrass or create a greater gap with Syria. PM Erdogan though has more recently defined the Syrian regime’s actions as “savagery,” a sign of growing frustration and/or more public pressure. Allies Failed at UN Security Council The effort by “allies” as France, the UK, Germany, Portugal and US to force through a vote in the UN Security Council condemning Syria has failed for the moment, at least. Russia’s resistance and potential veto were only part of the problem. China is always inclined to define as narrowly as possible any precedent that could in the future be applied to its restive regions as Tibet and Xinjiang in the context of “threat to international peace and security.” The parallel between Israel and Syria inclined Arab states to resist condemnations of Syria if such resolutions did not likewise judge recent killings by Israeli forces of unarmed Palestinian demonstrators on its borders, including the Golan Heights. It was not certain that any condemnation of Syria could garner 9 of 15 “yes” votes even setting aside a possible Russian veto. So Far, Damascus Not Taking Heed of Ankara Thus, Erdogan’s Turkey may be the only willing and capable international factor to temper Syria’s behavior. Turkey’s pivotal role as NATO member would appear to be even further reason for Assad’s regime to take heed. However, there appears little result. The crackdown continues and refugees keep flowing into Turkey. Erdogan cannot afford to take this meekly. Besides the refugees, there is the prospect of growing unrest on its border with Syria and even a potential anti-Assad insurgency securing a base and support on the Turkish border. Perhaps most importantly for the new Turkish elite with ambitions of re-establishing the semblance of Ottoman influence, the Assad regime’s ignoring its message could be both embarrassing and dampening of this agenda of Turkey reclaiming old influence. Erdogan’s political Islam has shown itself largely successful in the context of domestic Turkish politics and reasserting Turkey with its Euro-Atlantic allies. However, it could a seismic setback if its first failure was in dealing with an immediate neighbor and another majority Muslim state as Syria. What Options for Ankara & Erdogan? Turkey’s frustration could continue to be evidenced with ever harsher words toward Assad’s regime. However, if Ankara starts to support/engage for a “safe zone” in the Syrian side of the border, this would signal a hard turn to pressure Damascus. Not probable in my opinion, at least not for now, but it may be the last move that Erdogan’s Ankara can play with so much at stake for its vision of Turkey’s regional and global role as well as the human dimensions for the Syrian’s fleeing. Related Reports at diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice LAST RELATED REPORT - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/dirty-war-argentina-then-syria-today-uns-ban-ki-moon-by-ambassador-mo/28938 ---“More Words to Confront Assad Regime” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/more-words-to-confront-assad-regime-by-ambassador-mo/28805 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow at DiplomaticallyX