Turkey has been positioning itself as a revitalized political/diplomatic power. Syria and Libya were two cornerstones of that effort, and Turkey’s economic resurgence was particularly complementary. However, Colonel Gaddafi’s (Libya) almost certain demise and Bashar al-Assad’s (Syria) slide into civil conflict are compelling Turkey to reassess not its role but the alignment. Low post Gaza Flotilla Israeli-Turkish relations had hit a low in the aftermath of the Gaza Flotilla killings last year. This followed the open “Davos” confrontation between Turkey’s Prime Minister Regep Erdogan and Israeli President Shimon Peres. Israel is substantively dependent on Turkish military training bases, even quiet but steady political friendship. Israel’s Government though had already become annoyed by Ankara’s efforts to intercede in talks with Syria, even before the Gaza Flotilla last year. Perhaps it is convenient for both that such talks are indefinitely put-off by Syria’s internal turmoil. However, Syria’s current regime has produced other problems for Turkey, the most visible a surge of refugees. Syria has also sounded an almost belligerent and desperate tone toward Ankara, after this Turkish Government did not opt to endorse Damascus’ so-called reform initiative in response to months of popular protests. (Syria’s Foreign Minister pointed out that Turkey and Syria shared a long border, around 750km – which could have been interpreted by many in Ankara as a threat to unleash Kurdish insurgency again into Turkey). Turkey Re-aligning to New Reality in Libya Ankara has now gone ahead and recognized the new Libyan interim government based in Benghazi, after initially having opposed direct NATO intervention. Turkey has also called for Gaddafi to leave and is quickly aligning itself with most of its other NATO partners and Arab allies. Ankara Sees itself as Player in the Room Reports of talks/efforts at reconciling tensions and differences with Israel have been leaked. The current Turkish Government wants to reassert its leadership role in the region. Israel needs the military bases and perhaps Turkey’s friendship, even if a cool handshake. Israel’s current Government probably does not want an embrace from Turkey, as it does not see favorably the consequences of Turkey’s intercession. It may prefer Turkey to be seen in the event photograph, but not the family room. Israel has already underestimated Ankara’s resolve and willingness to play diplomatic hardball (when Turkey’s top diplomat in Israel was perceived as insulted by Israel’s Foreign Ministry a couple of years earlier). This is an opportunity for both governments brought about by a coincidence of fortune or misfortune faced by others. There is a new UN report coming out on the Gaza Flotilla, (and perhaps a whole new flotilla effort from Greece, Italy as well as Turkey). Turkey is seeking an apology while Israel may only offer “regrets” in the battle over diplomatic language. However, the biggest challenge may come on a considerably more substantive issue: progress on overall Arab-Israeli peace and Palestinian admission to the United Nations as full member. Ankara sees itself as a substantive player and not mere mantle piece in the room. So far Turkey is not even in the room, and the question is if there is any avenue open for such process to advance. More than Symbolism but Strategic Decision to Reset Fractured Relationship In the end, Turkey expects Israel’s current government to do something more than cling to the status quo. On the other hand, Israel does not really seek or want Turkey’s involvement beyond military bases and photographs. This is not a mere tactical difference, but of fundamental strategic considerations. More than words of “apology” or “regret” and handshakes for diplomatic photographs will be necessary to reset this fractured relationship. LAST REPORT - “Turkey Can Affect Syria Regime?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/turkey-can-affect-syria-regimes-behavior-by-ambassador-mo/29509 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Facebook Become a Fan at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – Follow at DiplomaticallyX Related Reports at diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice