In the grander scheme of things, it was nearly a perfect game for Pakistan.

The 1992 champions finally defeated a team in the tournament by a margin large enough to boost both morale and the crucial net run rate (NRR). Yet, they were exposed enough by the UAE to warrant some soul-searching.

It was a relief that Ahmed Shehzad and Haris Sohail finally made significant contributions. Their runs also allowed Misbah-ul-Haq some breathing room, who played a more natural game, free of the demands of rebuilding an innings.

Another welcome sign was the striking form of players like Afridi and Maqsood, whose blows could come in handy against South Africa, especially since that particular match takes place at a small ground like Eden Park.

It was a little disappointing that neither Shehzad nor Sohail were able to convert their innings into big hundreds, but after the failures against Zimbabwe, fans will be largely happy with today's scorecard.

Of more concern was the nervous start made by Shehzad, where he was gifted a few chances by the UAE fielders – an occurrence unlikely to happen against South Africa.

Another correction Pakistan must make before South Africa is in its death bowling.

The good length deliveries resulted in some mighty hits from Amjad Javed against Sohail Khan. Coach Waqar Younis must also urge Rahat Ali to bowl a little fuller in general, especially in conditions where the ball is swinging. As Ian Bishop pointed out in the commentary box, Rahat Ali’s shorter deliveries are more likely to be punished by South Africa at Eden Park.

The decision to play Jamshed and Irfan

But perhaps bigger the greatest concern was the continuing failure of opener Nasir Jamshed, who isn’t performing well in any capacity. It was rumoured that the team management fought tooth and nail for Jamshed’s inclusion in the original squad, but he was – as confirmed by selector Mohammad Akram on Ten Sports – kept out because he was deemed extremely unfit and in poor form in the first class circuit.

Also read: Whether Pakistan qualify or not, Nasir Jamshed (parody) wins

Instead, selectors pushed for Azhar Ali’s inclusion. Eventually, a compromise was reached when the left-hander was placed in the reserves, while Azhar Ali did not make the cut.

Mohammad Hafeez has hinted that he could have recovered from his injury but was nudged back to Pakistan in favour of Nasir. Here, since Nasir was already in the reserves, the selectors were powerless to deny the management’s request.

For the coach and captain to pick a player purely on gut instinct is somewhat acceptable considering that it is their neck on the line. Imran Khan claims to have taken Inzamam-ul-Haq to the 1992 World Cup, based purely on instinct.

But the difference here is that Inzy had shown potential in some matches before his fantastic innings in the semifinal against New Zealand. In contrast, Nasir seems completely out of his element.

While it is understandable that the management wants to provide opportunities to a player they invested in, such eagerness to play Nasir Jamshed seems nothing short of stubborn.

With Nasir having completed a hat-trick of poor innings, Pakistan is in a quandary: including Sarfraz Ahmed as Nasir's replacement would mean that the young wicket-keeper/batsman will be facing a dangerous South African attack without match practice against the minnows.

Although I knew that Yasir Shah and Sarfraz Ahmed will unfairly be called upon undercooked, I must admit that these are tough calls for the management to make. To their credit, though, their selection of Rahat Ali proved to be the right call, and in the left arm bowler we may have a match-winner for the knockout rounds.

Take a look: Is there really a 'par score' in this World Cup?

A more frustrating decision by Pakistan was to play Mohammad Irfan so soon after his demanding performance against Zimbabwe. As I suggested previously, the giant paceman should have been rested today in favour of Yasir Shah or Ehsan Adil. Knowing the fragile bowler’s history, it wasn’t surprising to see him walk off after bowling only three overs.

Irfan's inclusion clearly came from the ‘better safe than sorry’ mentality for what was a must-win game for an underperforming team.

Let’s hope that this defensive selection has not resulted in a long-term injury.

The 'nightmare scenario'

Pakistan's qualification is very likely to be down to NRR in the end, but if they lose to South Africa, there is one possible, dreadful chain of events which could see them out of the tournament even before their game against Ireland.

Let us say Pakistan lose to South Africa:

• Pakistan will then be standing at 4 points before the Ireland game.
• South Africa, having defeated Pakistan, will have 6 points, and an easy UAE game to get to 8.
• India already have 6 and need just one win in their next three games to get to 8. Let's say they beat Zimbabwe to get 8 points, but lose to Ireland and West Indies.
• West Indies, currently at 4 points, beat both India and UAE, so they now have 8.
• Ireland currently at 4 points and three remaining games, beat India and Zimbabwe both. This gives them 8 points too (even before their Pakistan match).

In such a scenario, Pakistan will be out of the tournament and left with a meaningless game against Ireland.

Of course, the probability of both Ireland and West Indies beating India is not something you would want to bet on.

In all likeliness, Pakistan will be battling either one of West Indies or Ireland, or both of them on NRR to qualify for the knockout phase.

But for the Pakistani team, there are no guarantees unless they not only win but win well.