Tonight, with arms raised in UN Security Council vote, the International Criminal Court hands freed, it is thumbs down on Gaddafi. The Security Council voted, 15-0, to impose personal financial and travel sanctions upon Colonel Gaddafi and cronies and most critically referred recent events in Libya to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation for potential criminal prosecution. This last step was unprecedented, and I had not expected that the Security Council would so quickly find agreement on this point. Beyond the current events in Libya, this Resolution (1970) and specifically the referral is a game changer for the ICC. (However, that requires its own independent discussion, and I will save that for the next article). Applying the leverage of financial, travel and criminal sanctions and with such speed and coordinated application, the UN Security Council sent the message, more like threat, to Gaddafi loyalists: if you do not detach from Gaddafi, then you will be subject to the same. So far the Libyans subject to sanctions are overwhelmingly Gaddafi family and a select group right at top. It’s only around 30 named persons, but the resolutions allows for others to be quickly added to the list and sanctioned. This appears to be part of a clear strategy to isolate and then peel away Gaddafi’s support, and probably the best means for ending his rule as well as the crisis. However, Gaddafi’s end now is as likely to come at the hands of some domestic ad-hoc tribunal or committee rather than the ICC. Gaddafi opponents just want to quick end while Gaddafi loyalists will look to preempt any further investigations and potential prosecutions by the ICC by cutting the head off. Whether Gaddafi’s demise may end the ICC mandate in Libya is doubtful now that the UN Security Council has endorsed. Nonetheless, getting rid of Gaddafi personally will blur evidence problematic to some. It could turn those closest to Gaddafi from villains to heroes in the eyes of the new Libyan revolution. Libya has a long history of gladiators (Spartacus presumably started his career in one of Libya’s many rinks) and pirates (Barbary), freedom fighters (Omar Mukhtar who resisted Mussolini’s invasion and concentration camps) and despots (Benito Mussolini wannabe colonial Caesar). Gaddafi would like to think himself gladiator and freedom fighter, but he is more kin to the pompous Mussolini. Gaddafi in many ways has identified more with Italy’s elite as Berlusconi rather than his own people. Gaddafi meting his end as Mussolini did is not only a possible historical irony but likely outcome. The Security Council had to act convincingly and briskly for its own standing and not to appear to implicitly secede authority to other international institutions. Tonight’s Resolution on Libya was almost as much about the Security Council in the future as it is about Libya now. The Secretary General also concluded that tonight’s resolution was only a first step, if more were to be needed. Ban Ki-moon let it be known that he would knock on the Council’s door soon again, if necessary. I suspect though that the Security Council by raising its arms has already turned thumbs down on Gaddafi. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Read/View Related Reports at www.diplomaticallyincorrect.org Facebook: Find us @ “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter: DiplomaticallyX