What can Russia's air force do?

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Syria: What can Russia's air force do?

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Russian air force Su-30MKI fighter jet takes off during the MAKS-2015 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside MoscowImage copyrightAP
Image captionRussia has four SU-30 fighter jets among its 34 fixed wing aircraft in Latakia

This is the first Russian military operation beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet Union since the end of the Cold War.

But the US and its coalition partners have already conducted over 7,000 air strikes in Syria and Iraq against the so-called Islamic State. And even on the most optimistic assessment their impact has been limited.

IS is contained but in no sense defeated. So why should Russia be able to do any better?

Russia of course is restricting its strikes to Syria. Its initial combat missions suggest that its fundamental aim is to relieve pressure upon President Assad's embattled forces and that its list of targets will go well beyond those exclusively linked to IS.

But what capabilities do the Russians actually have at Latakia? What weapons can they use? How does the Russian Air Force compare to its western equivalents? And what ultimately can it achieve?

A mix of old and new

The air expeditionary force that has been despatched to Syria represents a microcosm of the Russian Air Force as a whole.

As Michael Kofman, a US-based analyst with the CNA Corporation notes, Russia has some 34 fixed wing aircraft based at Latakia - a mixture of types, comprising: 12 Su-25's; 12 Su-24M2's; four Su-30SM's; and six Su-34's.

"This," he told me, "represents both the older generation of venerable Soviet strike aircraft and the new, most modern, multi-role strike aircraft Russia has to offer.

"The Su-25," he explains, "is a close ground support and strike platform, used throughout Russia's wars, including Chechnya and the Russia-Georgia war. This aircraft is quite capable of close support, but rather vulnerable and easy to lose, particularly to MANPADS (man-portable or shoulder-fired surface to air missiles) which have proliferated across the Syrian battle space.

"The Su-24M2 is the classic tactical bomber, modernised from Soviet days and capable of a variety of strike missions but a rather worn and older aircraft."

The more interesting elements of the deployment, says Kofman, are the Su-30SM's and the Su-34's. "The Su-30SM is a heavy multi-role fighter, capable of both air-to-air combat and a variety of precision strike missions at higher altitudes."

The recent arrival of Su-34 ("Fullbacks" according to their NATO code-name) completes the picture. "These are much more advanced strike aircraft, essentially replacements for the Su-24M2, and are able to conduct the full spectrum of bombing and defending themselves in air-to-air. These have never been to war and Russia may not just be using them, but indeed testing them."

Screengrab from video posted online by opposition activist purportedly showing aftermath of Russian air strikes in Talbiseh, Homs province, Syria (30 September 2015)Image copyrightSyria Rebels Gathering
Image captionActivists posted footage showing the aftermath of Russia's strikes in Homs province on Wednesday

Weapons capacity

So much for the Russian aircraft then, but what about the munitions they can deliver?

According to Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at theInternational Institute for Strategic Studies in London: "The Russian Air Force today lacks the breadth of precision weapons and targeting systems fielded by the most capable of its Western counterparts. This is not a new problem for the air force, since this issue was exposed during the Georgian war in 2008.

"Since then," says Barrie, "Russia's air force and industry have re-invigorated efforts to finish development and acquire weapons and target designation systems akin to those fielded by the likes of the US and leading European countries. The problem originated with the collapse of the Soviet Union and almost decades of very little investment in developing advanced weapons systems."

There are some other notable differences in technology.

While the Russians do have semi-active laser and electro-optically guided bombs and missiles, and laser target marker systems on the Su-25 Frogfoot and Su-24 Fencer, they do not deploy the kind of targeting pods carried by western aircraft which help both to acquire a target and to guide weapons to it.

Though some drones have been deployed to Syria, Barrie notes that the Russians "also lack the level of unmanned aerial systems for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance that the US and it allies used widely in Afghanistan. Nor has it had the same level of experience of air-ground integration in recent years."



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