The UN Security Council “Presidential Statement” had little or no effect in curtailing the Syrian regime’s violence directed at its own people and towns. That was, at least for me, expected. I suspect that most policy makers in key capitals anticipated this outcome as well. It is an unspoken truth that for Bashar Assad and the Syrian regime there is no way back. It is the status quo or reform. It is the regime or the revolution. The US and its European allies will find little opportunity to directly intervene. Bilateral sanctions, but not through the UN, as that door has been repeatedly closed by Russia and China. Arab League & Turkey: Interestingly though, Syria’s Arab neighbors and Turkey may be catalyzing toward action. Saudi Arabia, neither theologically nor politically not much on the same page as Damascus, has recalled its ambassador. This follows a rising voice from within the Arab League, now with a more activist leadership of internationally renowned Egyptian diplomat and jurist Nabil Elaraby (READ – “New Arab League Head: Right Choice for the Time” -http://diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/new-arab-league-head-right-choice-for-the-times-by-ambassador-mo/28411 ). Still, this does not translate into any immediate measures that would directly confront or deter the Damascus regime – they’re already of a mindset that has accepted increasing diplomatic isolation and sanctions as well as condemnations as the price to survive over the revolution. The only sanction not yet implemented is a direct call for the International Criminal Court to undertake an investigation. However, again, that mandate from the UN Security Council to the ICC is not likely at all, as that would mean Moscow and Beijing would effectively lose control in trying to save Assad and his regime with some yet to be fashioned compromise. Is This Civil War? Civil war is now more or less on the horizon and events are quickly marching toward that direction. Some would argue that the civil war is already underway, but the opposition is at a tremendous military disadvantage. With no effective way to fight back, it is a highly one-sided fight. (Complex inter-communal situation in Syria - and its neighbors - make civil war even more difficult to untangle and thus dangerous once underway). Dare to Turkey? The Syrian opposition would need a base of operation beyond the regime's reach. Syria has long borders with Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and Israel. Turkey is in the best position to offer sanctuary to an insurgency, (while all others have better reason to lay low). Of course Ankara would never openly attest to such a policy. However, Turkey has already “hosted” a public conference of Syria’s opposition in Istanbul a month earlier. This was more than another signal of its growing frustration, anger with the Assad regime’s intransigence, (after having committed the last few years to furthering links with Syria and even prodding Israel on the Golan Heights). Read ARTICLE – “Turkey Can Affect Syria Regime’s Behavior?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/turkey-can-affect-syria-regimes-behavior-by-ambassador-mo/29509 Of course, Turkish entanglement with a Syrian insurgency could be a two way street. In the more recent past, Damascus had informally played host to Kurdish rebels crossing into Turkey. (Damascus has even hinted to this past which I and I'm certain Turkey understood as a threat). However, for Turkey it is damned if you do and damned if you don’t. It is about instability and refugees along a 750-kilometer long border and facing an embarrassing strategic setback to reassert its political leadership in the region if it decides now to let events unfold on the current trend. While Assad’s regime is now challenged by the opposition, it is on the other hand unwittingly posing a dare to its neighbors and particularly Turkey. Related Reports at diplomaticallyincorrect.org/c/war-crimes-justice


 By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey


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