Do not expect any new Resolutions. Rather, there are scheduled formal reports to be presented to the Security Council as called for by previous Resolutions, and informal discussions continue behind the scenes. No New Resolution Necessary – Regime Change by Any Name The anti-Gaddafi alliance feels that no new resolution is necessary for its mode of action in Libya. They will interpret the existing rather liberally authored Resolutions as broadly as they see necessary. The United States, United Kingdom and France have already announced that they view the existing Resolution calling for protection of civilians as effectively also necessitating that Colonel Gaddafi and family abandon power and Libya. As I anticipated from the outset, regime change is now part of the formal agenda, even if the “allies” insist that it will not be done by military force (– splitting hairs is part of the prerogative of those who have power and initiative). The real limitation is not in the interpretation of legality. Rather, it is functional – who will provide the requisite planes and how quickly can the Libyan opposition be ramped up to become the necessary ground force to complement NATO air power and drive Gaddafi and forces into submission. Thus, most of the anti-Gaddafi alliance including the US, Qatar and Italy have interpreted the arms embargo as only applying to Gaddafi and not the Transitional Council. There is also funding envisioned as the financial sanctions do not apply to the Transitional Council, and the frozen funds of Gaddafi’s cronies and regime will be gradually released to the opposition, at least in those jurisdictions as France and Italy where the Transitional Council has been formally recognized as the sole and legitimate Libyan government. Opportunity to Vent & Try to Embarrass NATO & Allies So, where are states like China and Russia that have voiced a public position that NATO and allies have exceeded Resolution 1973 authority by going beyond “no-fly zone” enforcement? From the outset, these countries knew that the diplomatic language of 1973, particularly the terms “all necessary measures” were and have been in previous precedents interpreted as a carte blanche. China and Russia had opted not to veto 1973 because the bloodbath highly likely if Gaddafi had overrun Benghazi and thus blame likely to fall upon their account. However, now that the situation has become more messy and drawn out, the opponents to NATO military intervention will take the opportunity to vent and make the allies appear quick on the trigger and not particularly capable either. (Informal discussions by Council members continue more regularly, although in this instance the public statements are likely to be more sharply drawn than behind the scenes where positions and the precedent have been understood from the outset). Report from International Criminal Court Not Likely to Favor Those Promoting Compromise with Gaddafi and Family: There may be a bit of cynicism in all of this. However, those who advocate a compromise with Gaddafi also do not have much room to promote their claims. The next likely public debate on Libya is most probable in the context of the Prosecutor issuing his report to the UN Security Council, as called for by Resolution 1970. The Report is due by April 26, 2011, (although could be delayed), and it is not likely to endear Gaddafi. Further, the Prosecutor has already expressed firm reservations against any notion of impunity, amnesty/immunity for Colonel Gaddafi. Thus, Gaddafi is not likely to be seen any more as a viable partner in peace much less a Libya moving toward democratic change and the rule of law. Those calling for incorporating Gaddafi into any compromise are likely to be presented with a most unfavorable environment for their agenda. By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey Face Book Find at “Diplomatically Incorrect” Twitter – DiplomaticallyX Other Related Reports/Blogs at diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_posts Including – “Doha (Qatar) Meeting of the Contact Group on Libya – Money Weapons & Legitimacy” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/doha-qatar-meeting-of-contact-group-on-libya-moneyweapons-legitimacy-by-ambassador-mo/27236