Reportedly Syria has agreed to the plan, but I’m not optimistic that it will deliver a solution or even end the repression, violence and deaths now estimated at over 3,000 since “uprising began). Unfortunately I think my old friend Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby (PHOTO Above with UN SG Ban Ki-moon), has found himself in a no compromise situation: either Bashar Assad or reform will not survive in Syria. Plan Calls for Syrian Regime to Pull Military out of Cities & Negotiations: The agreement also navigated by Qatar calls for the regime pull its military out of cities, release prisoners and hold talks with the opposition. "We are happy to have reached this agreement and we will be even happier when it is implemented immediately," Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani offered after the meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo. Meanwhile, outside the Arab League's Cairo headquarters, protesters decried the deal: "No dialogue, leave Bashar." US & Opposition Want Assad Out: As the Syrian opposition, the US has reiterated its call for the Syrian president to quit despite also welcoming the Arab League agreement. "Our position remains that President Assad has lost his legitimacy to rule and should step down," White House spokesman Jay Carney said. Access to Media & Arab League Observers: Perhaps the most visible test of the progress of the Arab League Plan for Syria will be whether the Assad regime lives up agreement in allowing Arab League and media access along a complete halt to violence, the release of prisoners, removing the military presence from cities and residential areas. Sheikh Ahmed offered that the Arab League would continue contacts between the Syrian government and the opposition "in preparation for a national dialogue within two weeks." According to the Arab League: "The Arab committee is responsible for submitting periodic reports to the ministerial council of the Arab League on the progress of carrying out the plan." ' Is Assad Buying Time & Legitimacy within Arab Capitals? "The regime is trying to buy time. Its calls for reform and dialogue are false and deceiving. The Syrian National Council reaffirms its demands that it had submitted to the Arab League," the opposition Council offered. The Council wants the Arab League to suspend Syria from the pan-Arab body and to ensure international protection for civilians. The Arab League though has stopped short of suspending Syria. Most Arab diplomats and I agree that it is not possible to repeat the “Libya precedent” which successfully confronted Colonel Gaddafi’s regime. (READ –“Syria No Action from UN Security Council”- diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/syria-no-action-from-un-security-council-by-ambassador-mo/32880 Citing the diplomats, the agency said it was "not possible under any circumstances to repeat the Libyan model in Syria." NATO has also ruled out any such military intervention in Syria. It appears from knowledgeable sources that Assad’s government is already trying to slow down the process by entering in convoluted discussions regarding procedures and venue. Perhaps already cognizant of the ploy Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby has offered that the talks between the Syrian government and the opposition would be held in Cairo. (READ re Elaraby - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/new-arab-league-head-right-choice-for-the-times-by-ambassador-mo/28411 ). Turkey’s Role & Washington Skepticism: Washington has imposed sanctions on Syria's oil industry and key state businesses in response to Assad's crackdown, but had stated before Wednesday's meeting that it would be "very welcome" if Syria accepted and implemented the plan. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland repeated the skeptical perspective from Washington: "We have had a lot of promises of reform and only violence in terms of the action that we have seen from the Assad regime." Nonetheless, Washington has repeated the obvious that neither military action is possible or planned regarding Syria. The current Israeli/Palestinian impasse only makes such option even more remote. (READ – diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/israelpalestine-returning-into-focus-in-arab-world-un-by-ambassador-mo/28059 ). Turkey had initially looked to take a very active role in pushing for resolution to the Syrian protests. Turkey had been developing a closer relationship with Damascus, after several decades of relative cool. The unrest, violence and refugees flowing into Turkey made the repression next door a matter of direct concern for Turkey. Turkey and Syria share a long border. (READ – “Turkey Can Affect Syria Regime’s Behavior?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/turkey-can-affect-syria-regimes-behavior-by-ambassador-mo/29509 However, Turkey has gotten burned more than once by the Assad regime’s failed promises. The Assad regime has been seen as even threatening Turkish interests in not so obfuscated language. Ankara is now dealing with an upsurge in Kurdish rebel activity, including killing of more than 20 soldiers and citizens last month. Nonetheless, I think in the longer term though Turkey will end up playing a critical role: READ –“What Next on Syria: It is Already Civil War but Insurgency?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/what-next-on-syria-it-is-civil-war-already-but-insurgency-by-ambassador-mo/33413 International Criminal Court: Also, I think that the International Criminal Court already has a role, but the only question is how to realize it. It will come the same way though as in case of Libya – a referral by the UN Security Council. Nonetheless, the matter could be referred by a party to the ICC and investigation initiated by ICC Prosecutor. (READ –“Syria Investigation: Human Rights Abuses”- diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/syria-investigation-human-rights-abuses-by-ambassador-mo/34693). By Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey


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