World T20 2016 March 13, 2016 India's to lose, but that could happen
India have invited the world to their party, but with 10 victories from their last 11 games, it is their own fault if the guests are feeling a little intimidated. To say that MS Dhoni's men have sounded a warning would be underselling it. Having whitewashed Australia down under, then strutted their way to the Asian crown, they have basically asked the world: "Is there even a point in any of you turning up?" Let us at least pause and admire the corporate synergy here: the BCCI's handling of ticket sales has effectively asked fans that exact question.
Pakistan almost got the message, coming so close to not coming at all. Presumably, the politicians realised that would have been no fun. Who wouldn't want a World T20 with Sarfraz Ahmed's manic sweeps, and Mohammad Irfan's rusty-robot fielding? Apparently, it is Shahid Afridi's final international fling too. Remember how he came to us, almost 20 years ago? That 37-ball hundred may have come in the ODI's 1990s heyday, but it was T20 in its ethos - a foretelling. Maybe Afridi will whack a few more sixes to finish off, eyes closed, ideally.
If Pakistan are the main-street retailer of cricket chaos, though, Sri Lanka have lately been selling the stuff wholesale. There were whispers Afridi could be replaced as captain, yet it's the defending champions who have yanked the emergency leadership switch. Along with the captain,Angelo Mathews, a fresh selection committee and two new players have come in. There is upheaval almost everywhere you look. Three months on, Kusal Perera's suspension on serious doping charges continues to ail them.
The longest-running ailment in ICC tournaments, though, belongs to South Africa. On paper they are huge contenders again, only the papers have now stopped talking them up so much. Maybe a potential South African triumph has been shoved in the "we'll believe it when we finally see it" pile. Unlike Graeme Smith, AB de Villiers seems comfortable with using the word "choke".
Unfortunately, he seems to keep using it in the wrong context. In the 2012 World T20, South Africa were merely outplayed, but de Villiers thought South Africa had cracked under pressure. Then, when his team had spent the final few minutes of their 2015 World Cup campaign dropping crucial catches and literally running into each other on the field, he felt they had handled the big moments alright. De Villiers' press conferences have almost become a test of mettle in themselves now. Will he use the word appropriately this time? Or will he buckle when the question is inevitably posed?
South Africa have also been beaten in a three-match series by Australia, and it is Steven Smith's outfit that appear most capable of challenging the hosts. If Aaron Finch, Shane Watson and Smith did not seem a formidable enough top order, David Warner and Glenn Maxwell have moved into ominous form, slapping 163 runs together in a recent chase of 205. Already the ODI champions and the top-ranked Test team, a perceived weakness with and against spin may be Australia's greatest impediment to reaching for that triple crown.
Across the Tasman, New Zealand's best T20 batsman has just left the building, leaving the man who may be the world's most likeable cricketer in charge. Kane Williamson's men might be cricket's cuddly teddy bears, but on the field they have been known to go full grizzly - in action, if not attitude. Their problem has been relative lack of preparation; New Zealand have not played in Asia since late 2014.
Bangladesh, meanwhile, have arguably proved themselves the second-best side in the continent yet. With April 30, 2014 being the cut-off to decide the top eight teams for this event, Bangladesh found themselves having to negotiate a banana-skin obstacle course to even get to the main tournament. They have clambered over Netherlands, looked set against Ireland, and vaulted past Oman to claim their place in Group 2.
A watchable, well-led and well-coached side, Bangladesh may be the underdog to support, though West Indies may beg to differ. England have picked a dynamic top order populated entirely by young men. Liam Plunkett alone flies the flag for the over-30s. Given Bangladesh prevented Netherlands from progressing, the second-richest cricket team in the world may not even have to lose to an Associate this time.
Afghanistan have muscled their way through a tough qualifying group, but are in much deeper water now. Of the giants they might be lining up, Sri Lanka seem the most topple-able, in their match on March 17. It is a side Afghanistan had in trouble during the 2015 World Cup. This time Sri Lanka have less experience in the middle order that had bailed them out.
If T20 is cricket at its most transitory, then the World T20 is the most consequential form of this frivolous fun. The tournament may be light on history and prestige, but in less than four hours its matches still move nations to joy and despair. Just ask the men and women of Colombo, for instance, whose spirits were broken in 2012, before eighteen months later, they spent a long, frenzied, euphoric night on the streets. It is an event that grows on you with each edition. The sticklers may complain now, but how many of them will still resist the fun in two weeks?
This year, India's form has been so dominant in their approach to the tournament, it would seem almost obscene that they could lose. Still, this is the format of "one big over" and "small margin for error". As such, we must conclude by stating "anything could happen". Virat Kohli could hit his head, get amnesia, and forget how to bat, for instance. Shikhar Dhawan could grow the tips of his moustache too long and poke his own eyes out with his facial hair. Upon such eventualities lie many hopes.
