Too clever and shrewd? Employing promises and reneging on them, accepting mediation from neighboring GCC states and then frustrating them, these have become the tactics of the current Yemeni leadership to cling to power. Beyond the immediate undermining of efforts at resolution, this though has the further effect of suffocating the voices of those promoting civil disobedience and strengthens those who are gearing up for a full out military confrontation to get President Saleh out. Is Yemen moving toward all out civil war?

United Nations think that there is some real risk. And, any time force becomes dominant over debate, more extreme forces will come to the forefront and perhaps seek to exploit the situation beyond just pushing for genuine reform. Below is the latest statement of United Nations officials from the Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights:
“The dangerous escalation of violence in Yemen over the past few days is very alarming, especially given that the Government and opposition were so close to an agreement. We have received reports of dozens of civilian casualties, including women and children, in the fighting over the past few days and are working to confirm this information as best we can. There are also reports of shelling by Government troops in residential areas. We are deeply concerned that such violence may be pushing the country to the brink of a civil war. We call on the Government to stop the excessive and disproportionate use of force, to stop targeting activists, human rights defenders and journalists, and to seriously investigate all allegations of crimes committed by security forces.
As we mentioned before, the Government has extended an invitation to OHCHR to conduct a mission at the end of June but we are seeking access earlier than that. We are in discussions with the Government on the terms of reference of the mission.

President Saleh and his establishment may be becoming emboldened to cling on the one hand, and fearful of the consequences of abandoning power on the other. (See President Assad and Syria). They may see this as the “to be or not be” moment in existential as well as political terms. The room for a peaceful resolution is rapidly shrinking while chance of full out war mounting.

Related Reports:

---“Yemen-UN Secretary General” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/movie/yemen-un-secretary-general/26503

---“Arab Revolutions-How Far?” - diplomaticallyincorrect.org/films/blog_post/arab-revolutions-how-far-by-ambassador-mo/25222


by Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey

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